Dry into Tuesday; Rain returns Wednesday
Good morning folks! We're off to a chilly start across the region with temps in the upper 30's along the highest ridgelines, while the valleys kick off the morning in the low - mid 40's. Temps will rebound roughly 30 - 35 degrees today (Memorial Day) under sunny skies and we'll keep the fair weather train rolling into Tuesday, although clouds will increase during the afternoon hours. This uptick in cloud cover stems from an overall pattern shift as increasing moisture is introduced to the region starting Tuesday, ramping up throughout the day on Wednesday, leading to isolated pop up showers before sunset. The Thursday through Saturday timeframe still has some levels of doubt as to which model will win out, but the overall setup continues to point to an uptick in daily pop up showers, with a possible round of regionwide rainfall Thursday night into Friday morning (if a frontal passage occurs). Although confidence is lower than we'd like, it would be wise to plan for rain and wrap up any outdoor yardwork before Thursday and perhaps start discussing alternatives if you have extended camping plans. Temps will make a run at the low 80's Tuesday and Wednesday and cool down to the upper 70's as cloud cover and rain move into the region Thursday through Saturday; overnight lows also increase starting Wednesday night, settling into the low 60's.
We'll start the timeline on Tuesday with sunshine starting the day, followed by a slow and steady uptick in cumulus clouds after midday, possibly becoming mostly cloudy (high, thin clouds) by the late evening hours. A high pressure system off the coast, coupled with an upper level trough and approaching front to our west, will setup southerly flow across the region, resulting in a noticeable change in dewpoint levels; muggy by Wednesday morning. Temps warm to the mid 60's - low 80's depending upon elevation, settling into the low - upper 50's Tuesday night under partly - mostly cloudy skies.
Wednesday will be similar to Tuesday with a few differences, such as an uptick in cloud cover and isolated pop up showers returning to the region. Moisture levels lead to a classic summertime muggy day and temps will be reasonable, warming to the mid 60's - low 80's once again and this high temp could be short lived if pop up showers develop over your location. Isolated shower chances continue overnight into Thursday and overnight lows will settle into the mid 50's - low 60's across the region.
Thursday through Saturday will be wet and at this time a washout does not look likely, but daily scattered showers and thunderstorms are a good bet; not the best time to cut and dry your hay field. Mostly cloudy skies will reign supreme over the three day period and there will be moments of sunshine that break through the cloud cover, but this will only help to initiate more showers and thunderstorms. Temps cooldown slightly to the mid 60's - upper 70's depending upon elevation all three days, with overnight lows not moving much as they settle into the upper 50's - mid 60's each night. The WPC is calling for an inch of rain over the three day period and this is most welcomed, with higher amounts likely for locations that experience a thunderstorm.
We'll stop here and circle back on Wednesday morning with a detailed timeline for the late week rain setup, in particular, when we expect the band of rain to swing through (as of today the timing points to Thursday night). ENJOY!