Damp, Chilly thru Sat; 1st Flakes of the Season?

Good morning folks! I was not able to post a discussion yesterday (Wednesday) as planned due to an oversight on my part, thinking I could get at least one ounce of signal at the campground we stayed this week, but alas, nature won out and my digital connection failed. So here we are on Thursday morning, with showers passing overhead as the cold front marches into the area, with an expect peak in coverage and wind speeds between 10am - 1pm. The front will push into the Piedmont this afternoon and typically we'll be treated to a post frontal airmass, but this go around an upper level low will slide into the Southeast, keeping mostly cloudy skies and light shower chances alive through Saturday. This will not be a washout and the heaviest rain occurs today, with 0.25 - 0.50" regionwide, while the Plateau once again wins out with 1 - 2" of rain over the next 24 hours. The upper level low slides overhead Friday and exits late Saturday, with a low pressure system hanging out in the MS valley to our west. This will lead to a string of days with mostly cloudy skies overhead, periods of sunshine (short lived) and a smattering of light showers, with coverage remaining isolated after the frontal passage today. With this in mind we encourage folks to keep their outdoor plans but pack a light rain jacket or have somewhere to sit under cover while the light shower passes overhead. Temps today through Saturday will be on the cooler side of normal, running roughly 10 degrees below normal as they only make it to the mid - upper 50's in the valleys, while the ridgelines above 5000' hold to the mid - upper 40's. Most of the regional Halloween events and festivals will occur on Saturday and we encourage folks to hold off till noon as shower coverage drops like a rock Saturday afternoon as high pressure begins to edge into the Southeast, setting up a sunny Halloween Day (Sunday). Temps moderate under the building high pressure, leveling off to normal levels Monday as the valleys reach the mid - upper 60's. We should remain dry through at least Wednesday morning of next week.


We'll kick off the timeline on Friday but before we dive into the details, don't forget that winds pick up today, gusting around 20 - 40mph depending upon elevation between 1 - 5pm. The front will be to our east on Friday and an upper level low will move into the region, setting up a cloudy, damp and cooler end to the work and school week. Temps only manage to warm to the mid 40's above 5000', while the valleys climb to the mid 50's. Isolated showers dot the landscape and usually certain areas of the region pick up more rain the others, but with the ULL spinning overhead, its anyone guess as to who picks up the most, although totals will be no higher than 0.10 - 0.25" over the 24 hour period. Temps bottom out to the upper 30's - mid 40's depending upon elevation.


Saturday will be a transition day and it will take most of the day to notice a change as we start the day under cloudy skies, with isolated showers continuing to pepper the region, transitioning to partly cloudy skies closer to sunset, with shower coverage ending closer to midnight and the pre dawn hours. Temps once again remain chilly, only hitting the upper 50's in the valley, while the ridgelines struggle to move past the low - mid 40's. Enough moisture will be around as we transition to NW flow later in the day, setting the stage for the season's first snowflakes above 5500' late Saturday evening. Tis the season!


Sunday into Tuesday will be mostly sunny with temps warming from the upper 40's - low 60's Sunday to the mid 50's - mid 60's by Tuesday. Overnight lows settle into the mid 30's - low 40's each night (depending upon elevation), under mostly clear skies.


Models are showing a front moving through the region late next week with a strong NW flow setup, setting the stage for another round of NW flow snow across the TN line. We'll need more time to discuss details and hopefully we can get a better picture on the setup by Monday. Our next discussion comes out Saturday morning, closer to noon. ENJOY!

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