Light Rain Mon/Tues; Moderate Rain Wed
Good morning folks and welcome to Daylight Saving Time! The sun now rises at 7:44am and sets at 7:40pm (today), growing over time to our next milestone of an 8pm sunset occurring by April 8th. We'll round out the weekend today with only a few passing showers, under more clouds than sunshine and temps well above normal. A high pressure system positions to our northeast Monday, setting the stage for a Cold Air Damming (CAD) event Monday into Tuesday across the Carolinas. Our neck of the woods will not fully be impacted by the CAD, however we are not entirely immune from its effects, with a much cooler start to the work week as temps hold to the 50's across the region. This setup lingers into Tuesday and begins to break down after midday, allowing temps to warm back into the 60's and the previously forecasted moderate rain event has been knocked down significantly, with totals going from 1 - 2" Monday into Tuesday to perhaps a half inch at most. A cold front swings across the region Wednesday, followed by an upper level low Thursday and both disturbances bring moderate rainfall totals to the region, with the WPC predicting 1.5 - 2.25" across SW NC from Wednesday morning into Friday morning. There is a disagreement among the models for the end of the week, with another round of precip possible Friday or clearing skies, but either way it seems this should be out of the area before next weekend, setting up a cool and sunny weekend.
We end this weekend on a warm note with temps pushing to the low 50's - upper 60's across the region, under passing clouds and a light shower or two. Temps settle into the low - upper 40's tonight and precip chances increase slightly, but rainfall totals should remain under a quarter inch today into Monday morning.
Plan for a cooler start to the work and school week as temps struggle to reach the mid - upper 50's across the lower elevations Monday; low - mid 50's in Haywood County. Although these temps are not chilly, it will be cloudy and damp, with light showers developing throughout the day and this setup will make it feel cooler than the mid - upper 50's. Overnight lows settle into the upper 30's - mid 40's depending upon elevation and once we enter the late evening hours, shower coverage should ramp up to scattered, becoming widespread by the pre dawn hours. Precip intensities will be very light and this will keep rainfall totals to under a quarter of an inch Monday morning into Tuesday morning.
Tuesday is almost a repeat of Monday, however temps should break into the low - mid 60's across the region as the CAD breaks down, with precip chances waning to only isolated coverage by the early afternoon hours. Showers should end all together as we approach sunset and a dry, but damp night lies ahead with temps in the low - upper 40's across the region; partly - mostly cloudy skies.
Wednesday and Thursday both bring us moderate rainfall, however it will take till the late afternoon hours on Wednesday for the rain to ramp up across the region, with the front crossing the area overnight into Thursday. Because southerly flow ramps up before the frontal passage, temps will soar to the mid 50's - upper 60's across the region, possibly breaking into the low 70's for the Andrews, Murphy, Robbinsville area. Widespread moderate - heavy rain is expected overnight into Thursday and a lull develops Thursday morning, only to pick back up Thursday afternoon; temps reach the low 50's - mid 60's on Thursday. Showers should wind down Friday morning with a couple of inches of rain in the gauge by 7am and we'll stop here to allow the models to work out their differences for the Friday into Sunday timeframe.
Our next discussion will be posted Tuesday morning. Stay dry out there!