Comfortable Wed & Thur; Muggy Fri
Good morning folks! The Monday forecast flopped with more sunshine than expected and although we did manage to pick up a handful of showers overnight into Tuesday, yesterday was still a big swing and a miss. Today (Tuesday) is also not performing as previously forecasted, with shower coverage not as widespread, dropping down to scattered chances late this morning and early afternoon. To make up for the poor forecast grade, afternoon highs today will only make it to the mid 70's across the valleys, while the ridgelines above 5000' struggle to get out of the low 60's! Enjoy this fall treat because we expect temps to slowly warmup heading into the weekend, likely pushing to above normal levels by early next week. Wednesday and Thursday will be our last two days of comfortable weather before moisture pours back into the region on Friday. An upper level trough is slow to exit Wednesday, pushing out early Thursday and this translates to a mixed bag of sun and clouds Wednesday, allowing scattered pop up showers to develop after midday. Shower chances are lower on Thursday as the trough exits and we'll enjoy more sunshine with only isolated shower coverage, alongside temps in the upper 70's - low 80's each afternoon. Northeasterly flow on Wednesday transitions to southeasterly flow by Friday as high pressure sets up in the Atlantic, creating an ideal setup for moisture to increase across SW NC. We do not expect an uptick in shower coverage Friday - Sunday (isolated thunderstorms), but instead want to highlight how muggy it will be alongside temps pushing back into the mid - upper 80's by Sunday. Taking a peek into next week, it seems we'll maintain temps a few degrees above normal with typical summertime shower coverage each afternoon.
I'll briefly mention Tuesday's forecast, only because its such a treat to have temps 10 - 12 degrees below normal on August 3rd. Shower coverage will not be widespread today, however there will be a second wave of showers closer to midday, with coverage slowly dying off as we head into the evening hours. If you want it to feel like its mid October outside (for the valleys), head on up to the Parkway where temps will struggle to get out of the low - mid 60's; dress for light drizzle and steady northeast winds.
Wednesday and Thursday are pleasant enough to lump together. The upper level trough impacting the region will exit Thursday morning, taking with it our higher chances for rain and cooler temps. A good portion of WNC will be under the influence of cold air damming Wednesday, however the wedge is not very strong so our portion of the mountains will experience a mixed bag of sun and clouds as opposed to cloudy skies all day. This will allow instability to develop and spark a round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms that should fizzle out by the late evening hours. The wedge breaks down early Thursday and as the upper level trough exits, we'll enjoy even more sunshine compared to Wednesday, with shower coverage dropping to isolated activity after midday. Temps push to the mid 60's - upper 70's depending upon elevation Wednesday and warm to the upper 60's - low 80's by Thursday, which is normal for early August. Overnight lows settle into the low - upper 50's each night; foggy start Wednesday morning.
Friday through Sunday continue our transition from below normal temps to above normal temps, peaking around the mid - upper 80's Sunday (and likely into next week). High pressure off the Atlantic coast will take over and setup a steady southeasterly flow that will dominate the region this weekend and into early next week. We'll return to a typical summertime setup Friday, with temps hitting the low - mid 80's under mostly sunny skies, followed by a round of isolated pop up thunderstorms around 3 - 5pm. Overnight lows also increase, leveling out to the upper 50's - mid 60's each night.
Early next week seems to continue this pattern and temps should hold to the upper 80's, with no indication we'll return to the 90's for the lower elevations. Enjoy the last hoorah of summer as we typically make the turn toward cooler weather (low - mid 70's) sometime in mid - late September; only 6 more weeks! Our next discussion will come out Thursday morning.