Cloudy and Wet through Monday
Good morning folks! It's not breaking news that we will be dealing with a wet pattern for the next 4 - 5 days but that's what we are expecting and although totals will be reasonable, it sure doesn't help your mood or productivity being cooped up inside for so long. The only silver lining we have going for us is that the Cold Air Damming event playing out across the piedmont and NW mountains is not effecting our portion of the state. We can thank the Great Balsams and Southern Highlands Plateau for blocking the intrusion of northeasterly flow into our neck of the woods and it seems this will continue through the weekend and into early next week. Overall, a southwesterly flow coupled with a few disturbances will keep light - moderate showers with scattered coverage going across the region today, Saturday, and Sunday, shifting to a frontal passage Monday evening that will bring a heavier round of rain across the region Monday night. The models show a slight reprieve on Tuesday post frontal and this may extend into Wednesday, followed by a regionwide rain event Thursday; confidence in the forecast drops off around Wednesday afternoon.
We kick off the weekend with continued cloudiness and light - moderate showers peppering the area during the morning hours on Saturday, scaling back slightly to isolated coverage after midday. Showers picks back up Saturday night to scattered coverage and this will spill over into Sunday morning, however coverage should once again revert to isolated showers and drizzle Sunday afternoon. Temps this weekend will warm to the upper 40's - low 50's across the lower elevations for all points south and west of the Jackson/Haywood line, while those in Haywood county and just along the escarpment (also Transylvania county) deal with temps in the low - mid 40's as CAD continues to influence regional temps. Overnight lows settle into the upper 30's - low 40's for most of the region each night, so not much movement between the daily highs and overnight lows this weekend. Rainfall totals from Saturday and Sunday will reach an inch across most of SW NC, with slightly higher amounts along the N GA line and nearby mountain ranges (Snowbird, Unicoi, Nantahala, etc.).
Monday offers up a reduction in shower coverage but isolated showers and drizzle will still rule the day, holding temps to the upper 40's - mid 50's across the region; warmer the further SW and closer to the N GA line you are located. Shower coverage increases to scattered as we near sunset and becomes widespread overnight into Tuesday, with another 1 - 1.5" likely regionwide by Tuesday mid morning. Its possible some wet snow falls across the highest elevations early Tuesday as colder air tries to works its way into the area post frontal, but its nothing to write home about.
A mixed bag of high clouds and sunshine makes up the forecast for Tuesday and temps warm to the low - mid 50's across the lower elevations and as of today, further drying is likely on Wednesday under partly cloudy - mostly sunny skies; mid - upper 50's in the valleys.
A widespread rain event is likely Thursday according to the models and even though we are too far out in time to talk specifics, it does seem to be an all rain event; sorry snow lovers. We'll stop here and circle back on Sunday, taking a more detailed look at the work and school week, in particular the possible widespread event next Thursday.