Chilly Monday; Sunny Mon - Thur
Good morning folks! The forecast through late next week looks rather boring, but for some this is welcomed news. Temps will remain on the cooler side of normal this weekend, with Monday shaping up to the be coldest day of the week after a front swings through the region Sunday night. Tuesday through Friday will see temps slowly moderating, likely pushing to slightly above normal by Thur/Fri. The models point to a second frontal passage sometime Friday or next Saturday, but this is not set in stone and seems to be our only chance for rain over the next 5 - 6 days. The upper level trough to our north does not appear to swing any substantial disturbances our way (minus the Friday round), which is what we were hoping for in our previous discussion on Thursday. We are not in a drought but this could change if we don't pick up some measurable precip in the next 7 - 10 days. All in all, we end the month of November and kickoff December in a dry, somewhat warm pattern with minimal precip chances.
Kicking off the timeline on Sunday, temps will start the day in the mid 20's across the valleys with temps along the ridgelines sitting in the low - mid 30's. A weak and moisture starved front will tap into southwest flow throughout the day, helping high cirrus clouds to spread across the region. The air is do dry that any precip that does develop will likely evaporate before reaching the ground (virga), although this is SW NC and a few drops are possible closer to sunset. Temps warm to the upper 30's above 5000', while the valleys climb to the low - mid 50's. Overnight lows will be held to the low - upper 20's under clearing skies, with partly cloudy skies overhead most of the evening hours.
Monday through Thursday does not show any signs of precip or much cloud cover, with mostly sunny - sunny skies dominating the forecast as high pressure slides atop the region. Temps will be chilly and winds strong on Monday, with highs only reaching the upper 30's above 4500', warming to the upper 40's - low 50's across the lower elevations. NW winds around 10 - 15mph will be present in the valleys, increasing to 20 - 25mph above 3500' and gusting to 40mph at times. It will take most of Monday night for wind speeds to calm down to a light breeze, with overnight lows settling into the low - upper 20's once again.
Tuesday will be noticeably warmer as temps return to the upper 40's - low 60's depending upon elevation, inching up a degree or two on Wednesday and Thursday to the mid 60's across the valleys. A temperature inversion is possible Tuesday night as clear skies and little to no wind make up the forecast, with lows touching the mid - upper 20's in the valleys, holding to the low - mid 30's above 4000'. Wednesday night may offer the same setup but its likely to be a normal temperature profile with overnight lows in the upper 20's - mid 30's depending upon elevation; under clear skies.
A second frontal passage is scheduled for sometime Friday but the details remain unclear this far out in time, with models going back and forth between rain and no rain with each model run. So for now we will mention light rain chances late Friday, possibly early Saturday, with temps holding to the upper 40's - mid 60's depending upon elevation.
Our next discussion will come out Monday morning, closer to midday. ENJOY!