Back into the 30's; Snowmaking Sat Night!
Good morning folks! One last day of above normal temps and then its fall-like conditions Saturday into Tuesday, possibly extending into late next week but temps should return to above normal conditions starting Wednesday or Thursday, but only by a few degrees, nothing like this past week when we experience temps 9 - 12 degrees above normal. This above normal stretch has essentially stalled the color season, but once the cold front kicks out of the area tomorrow (Saturday) morning, cooler air invades and temps bottom out to the 30's regionwide Saturday night, kicking the color change into high gear. The front will approach the region today, resulting in high clouds as we near sunset, followed by isolated showers this evening and peaking in coverage to scattered just before sunrise on Saturday. Shower coverage ends by the mid morning hours and clouds clear the region by 1 - 3pm, with sunny skies taking over the forecast Sunday through the middle of next week. Average daily high for the middle of October in the valleys is anywhere from 68 - 71°F depending upon location and we'll experience afternoon highs in the low - mid 60's this weekend, followed by a slow warming trend, peaking to the mid 70's sometime Wednesday or Thursday. The biggest change and perhaps shock to some will be the overnight lows as we enter a stretch where temps settle into the 30's and 40's, starting Saturday night, stretching till the end of next week. Frost is possible this weekend, mainly for the highest elevations above 4000' and after this weekend frost/freeze chances drop like a rock; average first freeze for this region (not dependent upon elevation) is Oct 12 - 20th. All in all, a wonderful stretch of dry and cool weather is about to unfold and we are very excited to actually have it feel like mid October outside!
On a side note, we will fire up the snowguns for the first time this season Saturday night as snowmaking conditions unfold after midnight, with temps in the upper 30's and dewpoints in the low - mid 30's, translating to a wetbulb temp in the upper 20's - low 30's. For those who are unaware, we provide a snowmaking and snow delivery service for parties, family gatherings, weddings, etc. If you are interested or would like to learn more, shoot us an email at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Kicking off the timeline on Saturday, we'll notice mostly cloudy skies overhead and isolated, light showers dotting the landscape, winding down by the mid morning hours. Most of SW NC will pick up 0.10 - 0.20" of rain so this will be a very light event and shouldn't be too much of a nuisance, even if you have outdoor plans; just pack a rain jacket or umbrella for the short window it will rain. Clouds begin to thin around midday and sunshine is expected before sunset, with temps struggling to climb above the mid - upper 60's in the valleys, while the highest ridgelines above 5500' only make it to the low 50's, but this will actually occur before 10am as temps begin to drop in earnest above 4000' by the early afternoon hours. Prepare for wind, with gust up to 20 - 30mph across the region during the early afternoon hours, calming down to 10 - 15mph the rest of the afternoon. Overnight lows bottom out to the low - upper 30's regionwide, with colder temps expected across the highest elevations, alongside a light NW wind in the valleys (10 - 15mph above 3500') and under mostly clear skies.
We hit the repeat button on Sunday, although temps will be a few degrees cooler with high temps only making it to the upper 40's - low 60's depending upon elevation! Overnight lows return to the low - upper 30's and a temperature inversion is possible Sunday night as ideal radiational cooling conditions setup, so stay tuned for our Sunday discussion to see if we forecast a colder night for the valleys compared to the ridgelines.
Monday and Tuesday bump afternoon highs into the mid 50's - low 70's depending upon elevation, all under sunny skies, with overnight lows returning to the upper 30's - mid 40's both nights; under clear skies.
We'll stop here but taking a look at next week it seems we'll continue to see sunny skies into Friday and temps should hold to the low - mid 70's across the valleys, but this may change. Our next discussion will come out Sunday morning.