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30's in July; Muggy Conditions Monday

Good afternoon folks and Happy Fourth of July! The past two mornings have been cooler than normal with a 39°F reading on Mt Mitchell Saturday morning and temps in the low 40's this (Sunday) morning; the rest of SW NC started the day in the upper 40's - low 50's. We'll experience another mostly sunny day today with passing clouds at times, followed by increasing moisture and temps Monday, but enough sunshine to call it a mostly sunny day; isolated showers closer to sunset. Southerly flow increases on Monday and excessive moisture arrives Tuesday morning, setting the stage for scattered showers after midday, followed by a round of showers overnight into Wednesday as a disturbance sweeps the region. Elsa's (currently a Tropical Storm) track will determine how the end of the week will play out but even if Else were to steer away from the region (which is likely), we still expect muggy and warm conditions to persist Wednesday into next weekend. Scattered showers are a good bet Wednesday through Friday as we benefit from an upper level trough moving across the region, followed by a disturbance sometime Sat/Sun that will ramp up shower coverage to regionwide.

Plan for a muggy start to the work week on Monday with temps warming to the upper 80's across the lower elevations, coming close to 90°F in the downtown/highly paved areas. Mostly sunny skies rule the day but with so much moisture building across the region due to increasing southerly flow, isolated showers and thunderstorms are a good bet as we approach sunset. Temps overnight into Tuesday settle into the mid 50's - low 60's under partly cloudy skies.

Tuesday through Thursday features a steady increase in shower coverage with each passing day, starting out with mostly sunny skies Tuesday morning, giving way to scattered showers later in the day. Partly - mostly cloudy skies sit overhead Wednesday and Thursday due to higher than normal moisture levels, but there is a silver lining to these muggy conditions, cooler afternoon highs. Temps Tuesday push into the mid - upper 80's across the valleys but will cool down to the low - mid 80's Wednesday and Thursday as scattered - widespread showers take over each afternoon. All of this talk about rain and shower coverage increasing might lead you to think we have several inches of rain coming our way but instead we only expect 0.75 - 1.5" of rain to fall Monday through Thursday. There of course will be higher amounts for those who experience a heavy downpour from a thunderstorm, but generally all of SW NC will pick up a light amount of rain throughout the week.

We'll stop the timeline here but we are watching the end of next week and weekend for shower coverage to increase and of course if Elsa tracks toward our region, we'll increase the amount of rain we expect. Or next discussion will come out Tuesday late morning. ENJOY!

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