30's Friday Morning; Sunny Thur - Tues
Good morning folks! The past several days have brought some healthy rain totals to the region, with the Highlands Plateau and the NW corner of Transylvania county above 3.5" since Sunday morning. The highest total is out of the Panthertown - Tanasee Lake area in Jackson County, where 4.65" has fallen at the Rock Bridge rain gauge since Sunday morning. Elsewhere across SW NC a swath of 1 - 2" totals is being reported, which is right on track with our forecasted amounts, not including today's (Wednesday) totals which will likely tack on another 0.25 - 0.75" of rain across the region. This go around the higher rainfall amounts will be located along and nearby the TN line as we experience a strong frontal passage this afternoon. This front will bring moderate - heavy rains and perhaps a thunderstorm or two and the speed of the showers will keep us from picking up too much rain, with most of the action off to our east by 1 - 3pm. We'll notice an abrupt change in wind direction and a noticeable change in dewpoints and temps after the front passes, setting the stage for a sunny end to the day and overnight lows dropping into the low - upper 40's across the region. Below normal temps linger in modest NW flow Thursday and we'll enjoy a gorgeous fall day, with pure sunshine overhead, low dewpoints, and a steady NW breeze. Temps dip into the 30's along the ridgelines Thursday night, possibly forming frost if the winds die down for a long enough period of time. Friday into Saturday pushes temps back into the mid 70's for the valleys (under more sunshine), which is a degree or two within our average high for late September. Temps will steadily climb as we head into early next week, peaking around 81°F by Tuesday, with sunny skies sticking around through the middle of next week. The only chance for shower activity on the models occurs early Sunday morning, with a handful of light showers along the ridgelines (at best), followed by sunny skies before the mid morning hours. All in all, a gorgeous end to the week lies ahead, followed by a picture perfect weekend, especially if you have plans to get outside or attend the Mountain Heritage Day Festival on Saturday at Western.
We'll kick off the timeline early Thursday morning and all of us will be walking out the door with temps in the low - upper 40's. Temps will not move much at all during the day as NW flow keeps temps to the low 50's above 5500', while the valleys warm to the upper 60's, all under pure sunshine. Clear skies will be overhead Thursday night, however the valleys are likely to experience dense fog after midnight, with temps bottoming out to the mid 30's above 5800', while the valleys settle into the low 40's. This will be our coldest night of the season.
Friday warms up a bit as temps push into the low - mid 70's across the valleys, upper 50's along the ridgelines, all under mostly sunny skies. NW winds will calm down as the day moves along and clear skies once again will setup across the region Friday night, with temps settling into the upper 30's - mid 40's depending upon elevation.
We essentially hit the repeat button Saturday through Tuesday, with temps gradually warming from the mid 70's Saturday to the low 80's Monday and Tuesday. A slight chance for showers exists on the models early Sunday morning (before dawn) and this window should close just after sunrise, ensuring we have another mostly sunny day across the region. Overnight lows will level out to the mid 40's - low 50's by Sunday night, holding there through early next week.
We'll stop here and circle back on Friday, sometime around 10:30am. ENJOY!