A Soggy Weekend Lies Ahead
Good afternoon folks! Well the weekend outlook hasn't improved any and in fact shower coverage seems to have expanded across the models, with the WPC forecasting a half inch of rain Friday morning into Saturday morning, ramping up to 1 - 2" for Saturday morning into Sunday morning. It seems we are having to pay for the near perfect weather last weekend. This is due to high pressure and an upper level ridge pushing moist air off the Atlantic into our region from the east, combined with a stalled front Saturday that will result in a muggy, wet afternoon for Saturday and Sunday. A resurgence of rain on Monday could rival Saturday's totals. The models do point to a change sometime around Tuesday that could lead to lower dewpoints, a substantial reduction in shower coverage and perhaps ample sunshine; fingers crossed. All the while temps will be seasonal but of course with muggy conditions in place it won't be entirely pleasant outside.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will pepper the region Friday afternoon, with a mixed bag of clouds and sun throughout the day, helping to hold temps to the low - mid 80's across the lower elevations. Most of SW NC will be in play for shower activity but the best chance for rain will be along the escarpment due to easterly flow and Highlands stands a chance at breaking into the century mark for rain (100") on the year (record annual total is 125.46" in 2019, annual average is 82"). Overnight lows settle into the low - mid 60's with scattered showers continuing well into the evening hours, fizzling out sometime after midnight.
Saturday looks to be the wettest day over the next five days with anywhere from a half inch along the TN line upwards of 1.5 - 2" along the SC state line as easterly flow peaks in tandem with a stalling front. Temps cool off slightly to the upper 60's - upper 70's as more cloud cover sits overhead compared to Friday and most of the action will take place after midday, winding down sometime after midnight; lows once again in the low - mid 60's.
Sunday features a continuation of region-wide shower chances, with a few thunderstorms added to the mix and another 0.75 - 1.5" of rain is possible from Sunday morning into Monday morning along the escarpment, perhaps as low as a half inch across the rest of SW NC. Temps once again only reach the upper 70's across the valleys, with dewpoints well into the 60's, perhaps low 70's during the afternoon hours (very muggy).
Monday is a repeat of Sunday and it seems we'll get a reprieve from the rain by Tuesday, with perhaps ample sunshine on Wednesday. We'll stop here and circle back Saturday with a better look at this upcoming change that looks to occur early next week. Stay dry out there!