Sunny Tuesday; Muggy by Wednesday
Good afternoon folks! Conditions are almost perfect for mid August this Monday afternoon with ample sunshine overhead, low-ish dewpoints, and minimal shower activity across SW NC. We'll continue to enjoy additional sunshine on Tuesday, with perhaps a half day of full sunshine on Wednesday as moisture begins to creep back into the region. An upper level trough will position itself just west of the region early Wednesday, providing a nice setup for SW flow to usher in high moisture levels and this translates to a return of increased cloud cover and scattered to widespread shower coverage for the end of the week. Scattered showers will develop Wednesday, but the best action will occur Thursday through Sunday.
Tuesday should be the last day in which we enjoy mostly sunny skies and although a cloud or two develops, we expect it to be a dry day across the region with isolated showers only possible along the highest ridgelines across the Great Balsams. Temps warm to the low 70's - mid 80's but the air remains dry enough to be pleasant even under full sunshine. Overnight lows will dip into the low - upper 50's depending upon elevation under mostly clear skies.
Wednesday starts off sunny but clouds will fill in as the afternoon moves along, helping to cap temps to the mid 60's above 5500' and around 80°F across the valleys. Scattered showers are likely past 2pm and coverage will extend throughout the night as moisture levels jump to above normal levels. Overnight lows will dip into the mid 50's - low 60's under mostly cloudy skies.
Thursday through Saturday look to be our wettest stretch of days, with 0.5 - 0.75" of rain a solid bet for all of SW NC and a much higher range of 2 - 3" along the Great Balsams and across the southern edge of the Southern Highlands Plateau. Temps will struggle to climb above the mid - upper 60's above 5000' and the valleys will hold to the upper 70's as more cloud cover than sunshine helps to cool things down slightly over the three day stretch. Some of these storms will be heavy rain producers but overall we expect a smattering of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon, with chances extending into the late evening hours each night; lows settle to the upper 50's - mid 60's each night.
We'll stop here and circle back on Wednesday with a better look at the weekend.