A Wet Week Ahead; Cooler by Thursday

Good afternoon folks! We're focusing the timeline from Monday into Thursday and taking a peek at the start of the weekend, with all signs pointing to a daily uptick in shower coverage, while at the same time temps gradually cool down to below normal levels. An upper level ridge will maintain its hold over the Southeast on Monday but break down by late Tuesday as a trough takes its place, with a slow moving front crawling into the region late Tuesday into Wednesday. This will flip the pattern from hot and muggy conditions with periods of sun and afternoon storms to mostly cloudy, scattered to widespread showers throughout the day and cooler temps. This transition will not be overnight and it could take most of Wednesday and Thursday to complete, but the forecast for a wet end to the week and weekend ahead looks like a lock at this point in time.

Monday brings us another round of valley fog taking till the mid morning hours to burn off, with temps eventually climbing to the low 70's - mid 80's by the afternoon. Cloud cover will begin to fill in as soon as midday and scattered showers and thunderstorms will once again fire up along the ridgelines, migrating across the region till they fizzle out during the evening hours. Cloudy skies overnight will hold temps to the mid - upper 60's with dense fog likely for areas that picked up rain during the day.

During the day Tuesday we expect the upper level ridge to break down but it will likely take most of the day and temps will once again be able to push into the low 70's - mid 80's, perhaps a degree or two cooler than Monday as we expect more cloud cover sitting overhead. Scattered showers and thunderstorms once again take center stage by the early - mid afternoon hours, however this go-around showers will extend into the late night hours as the front migrates into the region from the NW; overnight lows once again settle into the mid - upper 60's.

Wednesday and Thursday will be wet, cloudy and cooler with temps only making it to the upper 60's - low 70's above 5500', while the valleys hold to the upper 70's - low 80's (Wednesday will be a degree or two warmer than Thursday). This wont be a washout but it will be close with coverage each day growing from isolated around daybreak to scattered by noon and eventually widespread throughout the afternoon hours. An inch of rain is possible over the two day period.

The models show a heavy rain event sliding across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys Friday into Sunday but this could shift our way as we near the end of the week. We are keeping on eye on this for obvious reasons but even if it doesn't swing our way, we still expect a continuation of Thursday's weather for Friday and Saturday. We'll stop here and circle back with more specifics on Tuesday.

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