Good afternoon folks! The possibility of a wet, cloudy end to the week with cooler temps is no longer and we are moving forward with a normal summer time setup for Tuesday into the weekend. Temps will peak Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons under an upper level ridge and moisture levels will slowly increase as the week moves along. This will prompt pop up thunderstorms to return by Thursday, with coverage inching upward as we move into the weekend. All in all, the week ahead looks great to be outside and the weekend less so as scattered showers develop each afternoon; higher coverage on Sunday.
Tuesday and Wednesday feature mostly sunny skies with very a low chance for showers each afternoon and chances even remain low along the highest ridgelines. Temps warm to the low 70's - upper 80's each afternoon and we'll notice higher humidity levels by Wednesday, with heat indices in the 90's across the deepest valleys; nothing a jump in the river or lake can't fix. Overnight lows will be comfortable but not too cool as they settle into the low - mid 60's depending upon elevation under mostly clear skies each night; foggy Thursday morning.
Thursday and Friday keep mostly sunny skies around but as the upper levels become more favorable for shower development, we'll return to the norm of a few thunderstorms developing each afternoon around the mid - late afternoon hours. Temps hold to the low - mid 70's above 5500' and the valleys will continue to experience highs in the upper 80's. Overnight lows will climb slightly to the mid - upper 60's each night as partly cloudy skies linger across the region after showers fizzle out by the late evening hours.
The models show a possible front this weekend but this is not set in stone. If this were to occur then we expect region wide showers with coverage holding to 40 - 60% across SW NC, not enough to stay inside each day but enough to reconsider your outdoor plans. The chances for rain are higher on Sunday compared to Saturday and Saturday will feature a sunny start but showers will develop by the early - mid afternoon hours, whereas on Sunday they will develop throughout the day. We'll stop here and circle back on Wednesday with more details.