Good afternoon folks! It's Thursday and we are focusing the forecast timeline from Friday into Tuesday of next week, with our next discussion not coming until late Sunday afternoon. The good news is that things continue to improve regarding the Independence Day weekend setup, however we still expect pop up showers each afternoon on Saturday and Sunday. Our region will be in the middle of an upper level ridge to our west, a trough to our north (later in the weekend) and a possible low pressure system to our south (not set in stone). This will translate into a run of the mill setup, producing pop up showers each afternoon, with a mixed bag of sun and clouds on July 4th, followed by a slow uptick in coverage as we head into early next week.
Friday is looking better and better to be outside as we expect mostly sunny skies throughout the morning and early afternoon hours, followed by partly cloudy skies the rest of the day as isolated showers and thunderstorms develop. Shower development will be focused along the ridgelines and with NW flow across the region, showers are likely to migrate across the landscape but you should be fine to hit the water as long as you keep an eye to the sky to ride out any passing shower. Temps will warm to the low 70's - upper 80's depending upon elevation, with a noticeable drop in temps as you duck under the shade due to the steady NW breeze throughout the day. Overnight lows settle into the upper 50's - low 60's under mostly clear skies with all shower activity fizzling out by the mid evening hours.
July 4th (Saturday) will feature much of the same action as Friday, with a slight uptick in shower coverage and this trend will continue into Sunday, peaking to scattered coverage Sunday and Monday. If you have water or outdoor plans for Saturday, push them up an hour or two to squeeze in more sunshine as cloud coverage is likely to become partly - mostly cloudy by the mid - late afternoon. Sunday on the other hand will feature more clouds than sun and a noticeable uptick in moisture, with showers developing as soon as the early afternoon hours. Temps both days hold to the low 70's - mid 80's with overnight lows once again in the upper 50's - mid 60's depending upon elevation; each night should be dry past the mid evening hours, with only partly cloudy skies overhead.
Monday and Tuesday bring us back to the classic setup of showers across most of SW NC by the mid afternoon hours, with clouds developing as soon as midday. Temps will cool down a degree or two compared to the holiday weekend, with highs in the upper 60's - low 80's each afternoon.
We'll stop here and circle back late Sunday afternoon. Happy Independence Day everyone!