Upper 30's in June; Warmer by Thursday
Good morning folks! The cooler weather is upon us and we'll continue to experience well below normal temps through Wednesday, gradually trending upwards as we head into the weekend where the mid 80's wait for us. Today (Tuesday) and Wednesday will keep temps in the 60's for the vast majority of SW NC, but there will be a handful of lower elevation locations that climb into the low 70's. On the flip side, if you live above 4500 - 5000' then you'll be lucky to climb past the low 50's, while the ridgelines are stuck in the low - mid 40's! Mt Mitchell dipped down to 39°F early this morning and bottomed out to a wind chill in the upper 20's, with a midday temperature (on Tuesday) of 42°F.
The upper level low continues to spin atop the Carolinas and this will keep mostly cloudy skies overhead today and Wednesday, with a slight change in the pattern beginning Thursday. There is a wedge effect underway because of increasing northeasterly flow, but as usual the Great Balsams and Southern Highlands Plateau continue to block most of the impact to our region, translating to only light - moderate shower intensities and scattered coverage; drizzle along the ridgelines.
The upper level low stretches out a bit Thursday into Friday and will eventually lose its influence as we move into the weekend, aided by an incoming trough that will bring us a cold front early next week. All of this translates to a slow uptick in sunshine/break in the clouds and temps warming with each passing day; also brings with it an increasing chance for thunderstorms.
Temps today will only reach the mid - upper 40's along the highest ridgelines, while the valleys warm to the mid 60's - low 70's. The difference in temps for the lower elevations is due to the chance for sun to poke through the cloud cover, with a better chance as you head SW toward N GA. Scattered light showers are likely throughout the day and night, but rainfall totals should remain under a half inch into tomorrow morning; overnight lows settle into the mid 40's - low 50's depending upon elevation.
Wednesday and Thursday bring us a slow increase in thunderstorm chances, but scattered light showers will rule the day Wednesday, whereas Thursday will offer up slightly stronger shower intensities as instability increases alongside increasing sunshine. Temps Wednesday hold to the mid - upper 50's along the ridgelines and reach the low - mid 70's across the valleys, pushing to the low 60's - upper 70's on Thursday. Overnight lows dip into the upper 40's - upper 50's each night under continuing cloud cover.
By Friday we expect a mixed bag of sun and clouds, with the balance tipping in favor of more sun than clouds for Saturday and Sunday. Temps will respond and push into the low 80's Friday and mid 80's this weekend for the lower elevations. Scattered thunderstorms are a good bet Friday afternoon and as of Tuesday, rain chances are forecasted to scale back to isolated coverage for the weekend. Keep in mind region wide rainfall is likely Monday as a front crosses the region, so plan accordingly if you need a period of dry weather to do any outside work.
We'll stop here and circle back on Thursday with a more detailed look at the upcoming weekend and early next week.