Good morning folks! The weather will noticeably change starting today (Sunday) as below normal temps and increasing shower chances take over the pattern through Wednesday. Temps will be cooler than previously discussed for the Sunday through Wednesday time frame, only peaking to levels found in early - mid May, not mid June. This is all due to an upper level low that will arrive later today and essentially wobble across Western Carolina and Eastern Tennessee into the middle of the week, eventually becoming an open wave and scooting east Thursday or Friday.
After clouds and a few showers pass through the region this morning we'll find sunshine taking over, hanging around through the early afternoon hours until more clouds move in from the west. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are a good bet later this afternoon, with most of SW NC picking up anywhere from 0.25 - 0.75" of rain by the late evening hours. Temps will only make it to the upper 50's along the ridgelines above 5500', while the valleys warm to the mid 70's. Scattered showers scale back to isolated coverage after midnight and partly - mostly cloudy skies will linger, capping temps to the upper 40's - mid 50's depending upon elevation.
Monday through Wednesday will feature much of the same weather, although Monday is likely to bring us slightly higher shower activity than Tuesday and Wednesday. We are not expecting continuous rainfall each day, more so scattered showers at any point throughout the day, with a few thunderstorms developing after midday each afternoon. Cloud cover will be hit and miss each day with brief periods of sunshine and sunny skies will only serve to increase instability, translating to showers and thunderstorms popping up after periods of sunshine. Temps will be noticeably cooler each afternoon, only making it to the mid - upper 50's along the highest ridgelines, while the lower elevations sit comfortably in the low 70's; Wednesday may break into the mid 70's. Monday is likely to the be the wettest of the three days, with 0.5 - 1" of rain falling across the area, compared to 0.25 - 0.5" falling on Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight lows will dip into the upper 40's - mid 50's each night and afternoon shower coverage will roll into the evening hours, but scale back to isolated coverage after midnight.
Thursday into Friday shows a warming trend with temps warming to the upper 70's Thursday and low 80's Friday, which is more in line with mid June. We'll stop here and circle back on Tuesday.