Good afternoon folks! Conditions are about as perfect as can be for the middle of June, with sunny skies overhead, normal temps, and lower than normal dewpoints. Saturday will keep things going but we'll shift to a new setup beginning Sunday, as an upper level low slowly migrates toward the region, in tandem with high pressure off to the northeast developing a wedge for early next week. As with most wedge setups the Great Balsams and Southern Highlands Plateau will block most of the action, however the upper level low will still provide enough moisture and instability for afternoon showers Sunday through Wednesday. The one silver lining as we return to a slightly wetter pattern is that temps may run a few degrees below normal.
Saturday should be the last hurrah for lower than normal dewpoints and full sunshine, but Sunday is not expected to be a washout, merely a typical summertime day with afternoon pop up showers. Temps will warm to the mid 60's - upper 70's depending upon elevation (may push into the low 80's in downtown environments) on Saturday and hold to the low - mid 60's to upper 70's on Sunday as cloud cover increases slowly throughout the day. Overnight lows will dip into the low - mid 50's Saturday night under mostly clear skies, but dip to the upper 40's - mid 50's Sunday under mostly cloudy skies due to an uptick in easterly flow. If you have plans to be outside Sunday afternoon, there is no need to cancel them but plan for afternoon pop up showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two.
Monday through Wednesday should be the wettest stretch for next week, but even so we'll only pick up 0.5 - 1" of rain from Sunday into Wednesday. The vast majority of rain will be off to our east across the Piedmont and along the Coastal Plain, where up to 4 - 6" of rain could fall over the four day period. Our area will deal with partly - mostly cloudy skies, temps slowly warming from the mid 60's - mid 70's Monday to the upper 60's to near 80°F by Wednesday and scattered light - moderate showers each day. Overnight lows will settle into the low - upper 50's for the most part, under partly - mostly cloudy skies and shower coverage will scale back each evening but not go away completely.
We'll circle back on Sunday with a new discussion and be sure to soak up the gorgeous weather today and Saturday!