Good afternoon folks! Cristobal is now a tropical depression, marching north across Louisiana and Arkansas and it's only connection to SW NC will be a steady increase in shower activity Monday afternoon through Wednesday. The escarpment along the SC state line will experience most of the shower activity Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning, then we shift to a setup where scattered showers and thunderstorms pop up in southwesterly flow Tuesday afternoon, extending into Wednesday morning. A front will cross the region Wednesday and tap into the excessive moisture levels from the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms shortly after midday, winding down sometime late Wednesday evening. The front should push far enough east to allow a dry northwest flow to setup Thursday, providing us with gorgeous weather for mid June as sunny skies and normal temps reign supreme Thursday into the weekend.
We'll start the timeline Tuesday morning with isolated showers present across the region, fairly constant along the escarpment before midday, then shifting to a focus along the N GA line as we transition to a southwest flow after midday. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms after midday anywhere across SW NC, with a chance for heavy rain as tropical moisture begins to push into the region, although it will take till Wednesday to fully envelop the area. Temps Tuesday will be a degree or two above normal as they push into the upper 60's - low 70's along the ridgelines, while the valleys warm to the mid 80's. Overnight lows dip into the low - mid 60's across the region, with scattered showers continuing throughout the night.
Wednesday is likely to be the wettest day of the week, mainly because thunderstorm chances are higher than Monday or Tuesday, coupled with a higher chance for downpours as tropical moisture sits across the region. The front should trigger shower and thunderstorm development across the region, starting sometime around 12 - 2pm and continuing into the evening hours. Temps will warm to the upper 60's - mid 80's once again, but overnight lows will begin to show signs that things are cooling down as temps settle into the low - upper 50's; showers should be over with shortly after midnight.
Thursday through Sunday looks amazing for mid June with sunshine overhead, lower than normal dewpoints (a big change going from tropical moisture levels to something more like early fall), and normal temps. Afternoon highs will be in the mid - upper 60's along the ridgelines, warming to the low 80's across the valleys, followed by overnight lows in the low - mid 50's each night. If you are able and have been waiting for perfect weather to hit the lake or get outside for a few days, then Thursday into the weekend is your window of opportunity.
We'll stop here and circle back on Wednesday, with a focus on the rain timeline (coming to end) and a peak at early next week.