Good afternoon folks! Showers are passing overhead as we type this discussion late in the day on Thursday and we'll find a similar setup play out on Friday, with a slight uptick in thunderstorm coverage compared to Thursday. An upper level trough slides across the area Friday, sparking scattered showers and thunderstorms after midday, followed by a frontal passage Saturday afternoon that will also trigger a round of scattered thunderstorms. The trough moves out early this weekend and an upper level ridge sets up shop by Sunday, as the front stalls just to our south and moisture levels slowly increase. This will translate into high clouds Sunday and Monday alongside isolated shower chances as Tropical Storm Cristobal slowly advances toward our region. Some models show the remnants of the system reaching our region by the middle of next week, a few have it returning to the Gulf of Mexico and because of this we'll stop the discussion timeline on Tuesday to give the models more time.
A muggy setup will continue into Friday and the only silver lining to the increase in clouds and scattered thunderstorms developing after midday, is that temps will be held to normal levels with ridgelines warming to the mid - upper 60's, while the valleys reach the low 80's. All of SW NC has a chance for a passing thunderstorm Friday afternoon and coverage will wane after the sun sets, with only a handful of light showers developing after midnight. Overnight low temps will be a bit warm, dipping to the low - mid 60's across the region.
Saturday features a mixed bag of sun and clouds to start the day and as we near the early afternoon hours, clouds will increase with a line of thunderstorms likely during the early - mid afternoon hours as the front pushes into the region. Southerly flow ahead of the front will warm temps to the low 70's - mid 80's depending upon elevation and once the line of storms pass the area, clouds will gradually decrease to partly cloudy skies overnight into Sunday; lows in the upper 50's - low 60's.
Sunday and Monday feature high, thin clouds streaming over the region and muggy conditions will persist as moisture lingers nearby due to the stalled front. A southeasterly flow will setup late Sunday and isolated showers will follow suit, with coverage spilling over into Monday. Temps hold to the low 70's - mid 80's and Sunday is likely to feel hotter than Saturday due to the increase in sunshine during peak heating hours.
Tuesday nudges the shower coverage level up slightly and temps cool down a touch as cloud cover increases alongside moisture levels increasing, with afternoon highs in the upper 60's - low 80's. We'll stop here and circle back on Saturday with a better handle on the remnants of Tropical Storm Cristobal.