Good afternoon folks! You don't have to look at the data to feel how much moisture is in the air as we continue to deal with muggy conditions, but there is light on the horizon as a frontal passage Saturday looks to scour out enough moisture to bring back dry and pleasant conditions. In the meantime we'll continue with a muggy and wet setup Wednesday into Saturday, with several rounds of rain, possibly heavy at times. There remains uncertainty with the track of the low pressure system off the coast of Florida and this may impact the forecast as we could experience scattered light - moderate showers or widespread heavy rain Wednesday night into Thursday. The low moves out of the area Thursday but enough moisture sticks around that daytime heating will trigger scattered thunderstorms later in the day, followed by another round of showers Friday afternoon. And finally on Saturday a cold front sweeps across the region, bringing with it one more round of thunderstorms, followed by clearing skies and a sunny end to the weekend on Sunday.
We'll kick off the timeline on Wednesday and cloudy skies are good bet as southeasterly flow continues across the region, turning easterly overnight into Thursday. As for now the WPC is keeping the bulk of the action to our east as they are forecasting a low pressure track further away from our neck of the woods, translating to another day of scattered light to moderate showers. Temps will hold to the upper 50's - mid 70's, which is a few degrees cooler than our previous discussion. Overnight lows settle into the mid- upper 50's and shower activity will fall off somewhat but light showers will continue to dot the landscape throughout the night.
Thursday features a bit of sunshine mixed in with passing clouds but this will only fire up thunderstorms after midday with most of the region in play, however the favored areas will be along the Great Balsams and escarpment due to easterly flow. Temps push into the mid 60's - low 80's depending upon elevation, creating a muggy setup and overnight lows only settle into the upper 50's - low 60's with shower activity fizzling out as we enter the late evening hours; passing clouds linger.
Friday brings us a second round of afternoon showers, this time triggered by an upper level low moving to our north and we could end up with region wide coverage as we approach sunset. Coverage slowly wanes overnight but by Saturday early afternoon we'll back in the mix once again as a front prompts widespread showers and thunderstorms, moving quickly east with most of the action ending shortly before or after sunset. Temps Friday and Saturday warm to the mid 60's - upper 70's and there is a better chance for sunshine on Saturday than Friday, not full sunshine but instead the mixed bag variety before and after the front arrives.
Sunshine returns Sunday and this fair weather is expected to last into next week, with gorgeous early summer conditions! We'll stop here and circle back Thursday afternoon.