Good afternoon folks! Things sure have been wet across the area but it could be worse, as our neighbors in the NW corner of the state are running a 1 - 2" lead on us, with 6.15" reported from Jonas Ridge within 24 hours (Mon AM - Tues AM)!!! This area will pick up another 5 - 6" by Friday, putting a foot of rain into play and leading to localized flooding and possible debris flows/landslides, but I should stress this is not for our area but NW NC.
Focusing on our region, we have picked up 1 - 3" of rain depending upon location from Sunday night into Tuesday morning; highest amounts are along the escarpment, while lower amounts are tied up in the more central locations (valleys). The heavy downpour aspect of this event is making for hit and miss totals, with our max for SW NC out of the Snowbird Mountains at 5.25" as of Tuesday afternoon. We still expect another 1 - 2" across the interior portions of SW NC through Friday morning, while the escarpment has a chance at adding another 2 - 4".
Now for the timeline. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue across the region Tuesday night and coverage will hold steady into the morning hours on Wednesday. It will take till the evening hours for coverage to increase alongside heavy rainfall rates, not letting up till the pre dawn hours on Thursday; 1.5 - 3" of rain likely. We'll enjoy a break in the action Thursday morning and part of the afternoon, but another round of rain will develop as we move into the evening hours, sticking around till the pre dawn hours on Friday; 0.5 - 1" of rain likely. Friday features more of a pop up setup but cloudy skies will remain overhead the entire day as the upper level low finally migrates east, albeit slowly. By Saturday we'll enjoy a bit of sunshine but a slow moving front will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms after midday, followed by a repeat performance on Sunday. Keep your outdoor plans this weekend but keep in mind that any shower that does develop could be heavy as moisture levels remain quite high into Sunday.
Temps Wednesday through Saturday will gradually increase from the upper 40's - low 60's on Wednesday (make note, this is much cooler than our previous forecast) to the upper 60's - low 80's by Saturday. Thursday and Friday raises temps to the upper 50's - low 60's above 4500', while the valleys slowly climb to the low 70's and upper 70's respectively. Overnight lows go from the mid 40's - low 50's Wednesday night to the mid - upper 50's by Saturday night; not much movement.
We'll stop here and circle back on Thursday with a better look at the upcoming Memorial Day Weekend.