Good afternoon folks! We hope you soaked up the sunshine this weekend because starting Monday we are in for roughly four days of rain, totaling 3 - 4" for most of SW NC, with the escarpment area picking up north of 6 - 7". Temps will be noticeably cooler Tuesday through Thursday but not chilly as they come close to the 70°F mark across the lower elevations. All of this excess rain is made possible by an upper level low that will sit just to our west Tuesday through Thursday, spinning moisture into the region from the south and east. With so much rain over a 4 day period, localized flooding is a good bet beginning late Tuesday, so be sure to keep an eye on the weather as we head into the middle of next week. The upper level low eventually will be booted out of TN and exit east sometime late Thursday into Friday, setting up what looks like another round of summer like conditions starting Saturday.
Showers will begin to develop overnight into Monday, with all of SW NC having experienced some rain shortly after sunrise and coverage will slowly increase as the day moves along. A round of strong thunderstorms will occur during the mid - late afternoon hours and scattered to widespread showers with moderate - heavy rainfall rates will pepper the area through the evening hours, scaling back slightly but not letting up throughout the night. Temps will push into the mid 60's - mid 70's depending upon elevation and settle into the low - mid 50's Monday night, with 1 - 1.5" of rain a good bet for all of SW NC by sunrise Tuesday, however the escarpment will likely report totals above 2.5".
Tuesday and Wednesday will be a mess as scattered (and at times widespread) showers and thunderstorms continually develop across the region with another 1.5 - 2" of rain for all of SW NC, while the escarpment in particular racks up another 2 - 3" (running total around 5" by late Wednesday). Temps will hold to the mid - upper 50's along the ridgelines both days and the valleys will only make it to the mid - upper 60's, while overnight lows barely move at all, settling to the low low - mid 50's.
Thursday should continue this seemingly never ending parade of showers but intensities should relax a bit and we may even experience a break in the action for several or more hours as the upper level low wobbles. This far out in time when dealing with an upper level low is never a lock, so we'll stop here with forecasted rain totals, but temps should remain the same as Tuesday/Wednesday, never warming past 70°F.
Conditions begin to improve Friday as shower coverage scales back drastically and some sun begins to poke through the high level cloud cover, allowing temps to reach the upper 70's. Sunshine and low 80's are possible by Saturday. We'll stop here and circle back on Tuesday, focusing on the ongoing rain event and provide a more detailed look at later in the week.