Good afternoon folks! It's Tuesday and we are watching the TN valley for another round of strong to severe storms that will push across the region this evening, with shower activity scaling back significantly after midnight. Wednesday ushers in an upper level trough and NW flow will setup shop, translating to isolated rain showers across the lower elevations and light snow showers above 4000'; light accumulations possible above 5500'. Thursday starts the day with temps in the 30's and even as high pressure moves overhead, ensuring sunny skies all day, it will still feel chilly as temps run roughly 5 - 7 degrees below normal. A cold front arrives sometime Friday afternoon and pushes a line of showers across the region later in the day, wrapping up early Saturday morning but not before rain kicks over to snow above 4500'; more light accumulations possible. The front will usher in cooler temps once again but at least the weekend will be sunny, with afternoon highs gradually increasing from 10 - 12 degrees below normal on Saturday to 4 - 6 degrees below normal by Monday.
First things first and that is the round of strong to severe storms we'll have rolling through the region this evening. We don't expect coverage to be widespread but the threat of hail, heavy downpours and strong winds are enough to keep an eye to the sky as we wind the day. Temps will settle into the low - mid 40's and all of the precip will wind down by midnight, with a lingering shower or two along the TN line as we slowly begin to transition to NW flow.
The transition to NW flow will be complete by the mid morning hours on Wednesday and a mixed bag of clouds and sun will make up most of the action, alongside NW winds around 10 - 20mph, gusting to 40mph above 5000'. Temps will struggle to make it past the low - mid 40's above 4500', while the valleys take advantage of downsloping allowing temps to warm to the upper 50's. Overnight lows bottom out to the low - upper 30's depending upon elevation and isolated snow showers along the TN line will lay down a light dusting above 5000', favoring the NW oriented ridgelines.
Temps on Thursday warm to the upper 40's - mid 60's depending upon elevation as sunshine takes hold across the region. Westerly winds around 10 - 20mph will continue across the higher elevations, gusting to 30mph; a light breeze for the valleys. Overnight lows settle into the mid 30's - low 40's depending upon elevation, alongside increasing clouds ahead that result in mostly cloudy skies by sunrise.
Friday features a late frontal passage and shower coverage will gradually increase from isolated before noon to widespread by the early evening hours. Temps should warm to the upper 40's - low 60's ahead of the front but drop to the upper 20's - upper 30's overnight into Saturday as we transition to northwest flow once again. This will kick rain over to snow above 5000' and another round of light accumulations are possible for the highest ridgelines, with snow ending shortly after sunrise.
The weekend ahead will be sunny but cooler than normal with temps only reaching the mid 40's - upper 50's depending upon elevation on Saturday, rising to the upper 40's - mid 60's on Sunday and climbing a degree or two higher on Monday to the upper 60's.
We'll stop here but be prepared for strong to severe storms Tuesday evening. Our next discussion will come out Thursday.