Good afternoon folks! Yesterday's storms sure were something and one station just outside of Hendersonville picked up 6.89"! Most of SW NC picked up the expected 2 - 3", although some locations closer to the TN line barely squeezed out an inch. We are dealing with a NW flow setup today (Thursday) and this will carry over into Friday morning with a gradual shift to a westerly flow by the weekend. We expect spotty light showers along the TN line this evening and coverage will carry over into Friday morning, with clearing skies for the rest of SW NC; light snow above 5500'. Sunshine hangs around for both Saturday and Sunday and temps will push to above average levels by Sunday, hitting the low 80's when it should be in the low - mid 70's for early May. The models diverge a bit starting Sunday night so our confidence is low for early next week, but there is a chance for showers to return Sunday night, ending Monday late morning. The middle of next week looks a bit like summer with pop up showers late in the day, but this is not a lock, just a likely outcome as we wait on the models to come to a better agreement.
Spotty light showers out of the NW will develop this evening and as temps dip into the low - mid 30's above 5500' rain will kick over to snow with light accumulations under an inch possible for the highest ridgelines. Elsewhere temps will settle into the low 40's, alongside isolated showers and Nw winds around 10 - 20mph for the higher elevations.
Shower activity will spill over into Friday morning but as the day moves along we will notice coverage drying up and cloud cover dissipating, first along the SC line with coverage hanging on as you near the TN line. It'll be a breezy day with NW winds around 15mph for most of the region, gusting to 35mph above 5500' and temps will warm to the low 50's - mid 60's depending upon elevation. Overnight lows settle into the upper 30's - low 40's but NW winds will keep patchy frost at bay with wind speeds around 10 - 20mph.
Saturday and Sunday keep sunny skies overhead and as we lose the influence of the upper level trough early on Saturday, temps will soar to the low 60's - upper 70's depending upon elevation. Temps warm even further on Sunday as they push into the upper 60's - low 80's! Overnight lows will dip into the mid 40's - low 50's Saturday night but hold to the low - mid 50's Sunday night due to the chance for scattered light showers.
Early next week is not a lock but the models point to a passing front early Monday morning that keeps shower activity going till midday, followed by a summer time setup with pop up showers closer to sunset for Tuesday and Wednesday.
A long term note to make. The mid May temperature outlook is calling for below normal temps, which could mean we deal with frost as late as the middle of the month. This is not unheard of, but something to consider if you are chomping at the bit to bring your garden to 100%. You may want to hold off on putting seedlings/seeds in the ground for another week if possible.