Good afternoon folks! The past 24 hours certainly have been eventful with severe storms pushing through the region earlier this morning, on top of a saturating round of rain during the day on Sunday. Rainfall totals over the 24 hour period (Sunday 8am - Monday 8am) are almost too high to believe but they come from a reliable source (FIMAN network) and the winner was Cruso FD with a whopping 8.19". Other notable totals include Lake Toxaway at 7.55", Balsam Grove FD at 7.13", Highlands at 5.48" and Newfound Gap at 4.65". The rest of the region picked up a healthy and expected 2 - 3" of rain and although those high totals seem unbelievable, keep in mind we had flash flood level rainfall rates during the pre dawn hours and the Cruso FD is certainly in a location to benefit from training downpours (nearby the Great Balsams during a SW flow event).
Stats aside, we expect a pleasant rest of the week with two minor disturbances swinging through the region, one Tuesday night and the other Friday night into Saturday morning. A cold front swings through Thursday but so far it looks moisture starved enough to keep mostly sunny skies overhead and the last thing to mention are the models pointing to another possible moderate - heavy rain event Sunday into next Monday. Temps will be near or slightly below normal the rest of the week and frost potential seems low across the lower elevations (below 3000').
Sunshine Tuesday will push temps to the upper 60's across the valleys, while the ridgelines only make it to the low - mid 50's. The breeze will pick up late in the day out of the NW and clouds will build by the evening hours, with isolated showers breaking out after midnight. Temps dip into the low 30's - low 40's depending upon elevation and its likely the highest ridgelines above 5500' could experience non accumulating snow.
Precip dries up Wednesday morning but it will take most of the day for clouds to clear the region, first along the SC state line, eventually reaching the TN line by the end of the day. Temps will be held to the low 40's - upper 50's depending upon elevation with a steady NW wind throughout the day; stiff breeze above 4500'. A few clouds linger overnight with lows in the low - upper 30's and a slight chance for frost Thursday morning if winds calm down; something to keep an eye on if you have sensitive plants out already.
Sunny Thursday and Friday, followed by increasing clouds Friday and showers after midnight, all clearing out by Saturday mid morning. Temps Thursday reach the upper 40's - low 60's, warming to the mid 50's - upper 60's on Friday.
We'll stop here and come back with a new discussion on Wednesday, focusing on the end of the week light rain event and possibly more details on Sunday's rain event.