Good afternoon folks! Its late in the day on Sunday so we'll focus the forecast discussion starting Monday, ending Thursday. Generally the week ahead looks typical for early spring with a few rounds of rain, coupled with temps warming throughout the week to well above normal by Thursday. Peeking ahead to the weekend, it seems Friday or Saturday a cold front crosses the region, bringing with it another round of rain but more noticeable will be the cool down to seasonal levels after the front swings through the region. We expect passing clouds with a few light showers Monday, region wide rainfall Monday night into Tuesday morning, followed by another scale back in coverage Tuesday afternoon through the day Wednesday. A second round of region wide showers move through Wednesday night, exiting sometime Thursday morning. To give you a sense of how light these rounds of rain will be, rainfall totals Monday through Thursday should be under a half inch for most of SW NC.
Temps Monday will only warm to the mid 40's - upper 50's depending upon elevation and if you live in Macon County and work in Haywood or Buncombe counties, you'll notice temps actually cool as you head east - northeast. This is due to a weak wedge setup as high pressure to our northeast moves into place, while low level moisture rides atop the wedge, locking in cooler temps for our neighbors in Haywood and Buncombe counties, more pronounced as you head into the foothills of NW NC. Our region is usually spared the full effects from a cold air damming or wedge setup because the Great Balsams and escarpment act as physical barriers to the NE flow of air into WNC. Isolated showers will occur throughout the day with coverage picking up as we enter the evening hours, peaking shortly after midnight and winding down sometime Tuesday morning; low temps dip into the mid - upper 40's.
Tuesday and Wednesday will offer up continuing cloud cover, although there is a good chance we'll be able to enjoy periods of sun on Wednesday. Temps will warm to the low 50's - mid 60's both days, with overnight lows in the upper 40's - low 50's Tuesday night and low - mid 50's Wednesday night. This bump in overnight lows is due to our second round of rain moving through Wednesday night, exiting Thursday morning.
Thursday pushes temps to the upper 50's - low 70's and shower activity should be winding down just after midday, however isolated showers will linger into the evening hours. We'll stop here but as we mentioned earlier, it seems we'll deal with a third round of showers Friday or Saturday as a cold front crosses the region, with temps cooling down to seasonal levels as we enter the weekend. Next discussion comes out Tuesday afternoon.