Good afternoon folks! We're enjoying the sunshine today and we expect fair weather to continue for Sunday and Monday, with showers returning Monday night. The recent snow that fell yesterday under-performed at the usual locations with Mt. Mitchell only picking up 4", with lower amounts elsewhere. Although its early March and snow is still possible, the mid - long range outlook looks above normal for the month of March and early April.
Back to the forecast, high pressure will continue to influence the region Sunday and Monday, with a front crossing the region on Tuesday. Widespread showers are likely during the afternoon hours on Tuesday and it looks like a break in the action will take place Wednesday morning, with rain filling back in Wednesday evening, peaking overnight into Thursday. The models are not in sync past Tuesday so the timeline pertaining to when the rain will fall is not a lock at this point, but we do believe a second round moves in sometime late Wednesday, followed by a third round Friday. Temps all the while will be slightly above normal as afternoon highs reach the low 60's Sunday through Tuesday, warming even further to the mid 60's Wednesday and Thursday.
Sunday will be a carbon copy of today, with highs in the low 60's across the lower elevations, while the ridgelines climb to the upper 40's. Overnight lows will dip into the upper 20's across the valleys, while the higher elevations settle into the low - mid 30's due to radiational cooling as clear skies sit overhead.
Monday will be another pleasant early spring day and sunshine will start the day but clouds will finish it as moisture moves into the region in advance of the approaching cold front. Temps warm to the upper 40's - low 60's once again and overnight lows will be held to the mid - upper 40's as spotty showers develop by the evening hours, extending into the morning hours on Tuesday.
Tuesday afternoon and Thursday morning look to be windows of time when moderate rain will fall, while scattered showers are likely Tuesday morning and most of the day Wednesday. This will not be a prolonged rain event, but instead a two or three rounds of rain with a few breaks in between (Friday's third round of rain is not a guarantee at this point). No severe weather is expected and forecasted rainfall totals at this point in time show anywhere from a half inch up to an inch Tuesday through Thursday.
We'll stop here and circle back with a new discussion Monday morning and by then the models should have a better handle on the timing and also if rain will fall on Friday. ENjoy the sunny end to the weekend!