Good afternoon folks! The rain we forecasted for today hasn't really materialized as the bulk of the action stayed to our south and this of course is effecting the forecast rainfall totals. The past 72 hours has brought most of SW NC a half inch of rain with a handful of sites closing in on the one inch mark, but this stretch of rainy weather will fall short of the forecasted totals by about an inch. The good news is that sunshine is still on tap for Friday, however the bad news is that NW flow will bring us breezy and colder conditions, with light snow along the TN line. This cool-down will be short lived as temps return to near normal levels Saturday and rise a few degrees above normal by Sunday. Dry weather will stretch into Monday, with a cold front moving in Tuesday that should stall and be the focal point for rain across the region Tuesday into Thursday of next week; temps will remain above normal all of next week.
Starting Friday morning we'll begin to notice the effects of NW flow setting up shop as an upper level trough moves into the region, pushing wind speeds to 15 -20mph across the region, with gust up to 40 - 50mph across the higher elevations. Full sunshine is expected along the SC border but a few clouds will be present in the NW flow as you enter the valleys of Cullowhee, Franklin, and certainly Waynesville, with light snow falling as you reach the TN line. Light accumulations around an inch or two are expected for the NW flow usual suspects and the window for snow will occur from the early afternoon hours into the pre dawn hours on Saturday. Temps will only reach the upper 20's - low 40's depending upon elevation Friday afternoon, plummeting to the upper teens - mid 20's Friday night. Clouds will clear the TN line area late Friday night as snow showers wind down, however NW winds will continue around 15 - 20mph, setting up a cold night across the region.
We begin our march toward warmer weather Saturday with sunny skies overhead and winds calming down as high pressure approaches the region. Temps will climb to the upper 30's - low 50's depending upon elevation Saturday afternoon, with overnight lows settling into the low - upper 20's under clear skies; little to no wind.
Sunday keeps sunny skies overhead, while Monday features a slow increase in cloud cover as the front approaches. Temps will warm from the upper 40's - low 60's Sunday to the low 50's - mid 60's Monday and overnight lows will generally be in the low - upper 30's each night.
Plan for a rainy stretch of days starting Tuesday with showers likely to extend into Thursday, however we don't expect heavy rainfall, but there is a chance for isolated thunderstorms (no severe weather expected). Temps during this time will be in the low - mid 60's across the lower elevations, which is anywhere from 3 - 6 degrees above normal.
We'll stop here and circle back on Saturday morning with a look at the Sunday through Thursday time-frame, hopefully with more details regarding the upcoming rain event during the middle of next week.