Rain Thursday; Dry Friday - Sunday
Good morning folks! Rain is currently falling overhead as we type this discussion, however showers will end this afternoon and we'll enjoy a break in the action tonight into Wednesday afternoon. There is even a decent chance we start the day on Wednesday with sunshine and clouds will slowly fill in as a low pressure system develops along the Gulf Coast. This low pressure system will tap a passing shortwave Wednesday evening to fire back up showers across the region, with coverage peaking Thursday morning, eventually winding down late Thursday night as a NW flow snow event for the TN line. Precip amounts will not change much from our previous discussion, with a quarter of an inch possible late Wednesday evening, ramping up to 1 - 2" of rain throughout the day on Thursday. Light snow accumulations are likely along the TN line and nearby NW facing ridgelines late Thursday night into Friday morning, with sunshine overhead for all of SW NC by midday Friday (perhaps sooner). Fair weather should extend from Friday into Sunday, possibly even Monday morning as the models point to a rain event sometime late Monday into Tuesday of next week. Average temps for the valleys in early March is the mid - upper 50's and temps return to normal by Sunday, with a chilly stretch from Thursday afternoon into Saturday morning.
Wednesday kicks off the discussion with sunshine to start the day and clouds building during the afternoon hours, with an isolated shower possible closer to sunset. Temps will rise to near normal levels as they push into the mid 40's - mid 50's depending upon elevation, falling to the upper 30's - mid 40's overnight into Thursday. Scattered showers will develop after midnight and continue into Thursday morning.
Shower coverage will slowly expand to widespread by the mid morning hours on Thursday, scaling back sometime during the mid - late afternoon hours and ending all together a few hours after sunrise on Friday, but this will be for the TN line, whereas the rest of SW NC should notice rain ending around midnight. Temps Thursday will be a touch chilly as they climb to the upper 30's - mid 40's depending upon elevation and as NW flow takes over later that night, temps will plummet to the mid 20's - mid 30's; alongside NW winds around 10 - 20mph.
Light snow accumulations around an inch or two is likely early Friday morning for the TN line and other usual NW flow snow locations, with flurries possible for the valleys. All of this ends by the mid morning hours and sunshine takes over, however temps remain below average as they only reach the low 30's - mid 40's depending upon elevation. Factor in NW winds around 15mph, gusting up to 30 - 40mph and it will make for a dry and chilly end to the work and school week.
Saturday and Sunday both keep sunny skies overhead and temps will warm from the upper 30's - mid 50's Saturday to the upper 40's - low 60's on Sunday! Although this winter has been lackluster pertaining to snow and keeping in mind we're certainly not out of the woods yet, we sure are looking forward to warmer, springtime temperatures!
We'll stop here and circle back Thursday morning, with a more detailed look at the light snow expected later that night for the TN line and the upcoming rain event early next week.