Good morning folks! Here we are, the 1st day of meteorological spring and the weather sure will feel spring-like today with sunshine overhead and temps warming to the mid - upper 50's across the valleys. Showers move back in tomorrow morning but it will take till the mid - late afternoon hours for coverage to become widespread, with moderate rainfall expected overnight into Tuesday. We'll experience another round of moderate rainfall with widespread coverage for SW NC Tuesday and Wednesday and there is a slight chance for thunderstorms on Tuesday. The models have been shifting the bulk of the rain to our south over the past few days with each passing model run, however our region is still expecting several inches of rain from Monday into Wednesday as we now sit on the northern edge of the precip shield. Thursday and Friday are not set in stone at this time, mainly because the setup is back and forth in regards to rain or snow. At this time either scenario does not look to be to heavy or concerning but this is early March and the weather can change on a dime, so we'll keep a sharp eye on the latter part of the work and school week. For those that are already looking at next weekend, for now it seems dry weather moves in behind whatever system we deal with on Thursday and Friday.
Temps today (Sunday) will reach the low - mid 40's along the ridgelines, while the valleys push to the mid - upper 50's, all under mostly sunny skies. Some clouds will develop as we inch closer to sunset and they'll continue to fill in overnight into Monday, capping temps to the mid - upper 30's across the region.
Isolated, light showers are possible as we start the work and school week tomorrow morning, with coverage expanding to widespread by the evening hours. During the day not much rain is expected, perhaps under a tenth of an inch for most of the region, however the escarpment will pick slightly more because well, its the escarpment and places like Highlands, Cashiers and Lake Toxaway always squeeze out more rain than the rest of us; joking aside its due to the southerly flow banking against the sudden rise in terrain. Temps will only make it to the low - mid 40's above 4500', while the valleys struggle to reach the low 50's; overnight lows dip into the low - mid 40's. Showers may be a touch heavy at times Monday night but we do not expect anything severe and rainfall totals ramp up significantly after sunset, with a half inch up to an inch possible before sunrise.
Tuesday into Wednesday will bring us another 1 - 1.5" of rain with the bulk of that falling Tuesday afternoon into the overnight hours. Temps will be the warmest for the week on Tuesday as they push to the upper 40's - low 60's depending upon elevation, cooling down slightly to the mid 40's - upper 50's Wednesday.
The models differ a bit in regards to Thursday, bringing us another round of rain that could fall as snow for the higher elevations, but we are not sold on the setup just yet. We will stop here to let the models work out the kinks and circle back Tuesday morning with a much more detailed timeline for the upcoming heavy rain and possible snow event.