Good morning folks! It's Tuesday morning and we are watching showers exit to the east, with high clouds continuing across the Southeast. We'll enjoy a break in the rain today but high clouds stick around, while temps soar to the low 60's across the valleys. A front returns Wednesday afternoon, bringing with it spotty showers to start and light snow to end the event, mainly for the higher elevation ridgelines closer to the TN line. Colder air pours into the region as the front exits to the east, setting up a sunny but very cold Thursday with temps below the 40°F mark across the lower elevations. Friday and Saturday keep below normal temps going with a second frontal passage late Friday that is likely to bring us a round of snow, however we are not sure how much will fall and if it will be region wide or more confined to the favored NW flow locations. Temps warm slightly on Sunday but will still a few degrees below normal, however it should be sunny which is always a nice way to the end the weekend.
High clouds stream overhead throughout the day today and with southerly flow still present across the area, temps will soar to the upper 40's - low 50's across the higher elevations, while the valleys enjoy temps in the low 60's! Temps settle into the mid - upper 30's tonight under partly cloudy skies and if clouds clear out even further we could experience dense fog across the valleys by sunrise.
Wednesday is a transition day as temps warm to the mid 40's - mid 50's depending upon elevation, peaking sometime around the early afternoon hours and dropping drastically as we approach sunset. Temps will reach the freezing mark shortly after sunset for the highest elevations and eventually bottom out to the upper teens - mid 20's across the region after midnight. Strong westerly winds around 15 - 25mph will develop by the late afternoon hours and continue throughout the night, gusting up to 40mph above 5000'. Light showers will dot the landscape by the mid afternoon hours and transition to snow after sunset, with snow showers extending into the pre dawn hours on Thursday. Accumulations will be light (under two inches) and mainly confined to the NW flow locations (ridgelines and high elevation locations closer to the TN line), however snow showers will traverse the entire region so don't be surprised to see a passing snow shower even as far southeast as Highlands.
This first frontal passage is not very moisture rich so all precip will end by sunrise on Thursday and dry, cold weather sets up shop for the day, with below normal temps expected to linger into Saturday. Sunshine Thursday won't do much for our afternoon highs as they struggle to rise past the mid 20's above 5000', while the valleys sneak past the freezing mark and peak around 38 - 40°F. Overnight lows bottom out to the mid teens - low 20's depending upon elevation, with a few clouds passing overhead.
Friday provides us with another chance for snow and this go around seems more conducive for a region wide event but don't run to the store and panic just yet. We are not certain as to how much will accumulate and the extent of the coverage as the models show us a few different scenarios. One thing is for certain and that is temps will not be an issue, ensuring that any precip that does fall will fall as snow. The timing of this event is slated for Friday afternoon into Saturday morning and at this point in time we are going with a light snow event under 1 - 2", with the bulk of the action occurring in the usual NW flow locations. Temps hit the repeat button and only make it to the upper 20's - low 40's, with overnight lows once again in the mid teens - low 20's.
We'll stop here and circle back Thursday early morning with a much more detailed breakdown on the second round of snow occurring on Friday and of course a look into early next week. Enjoy the warm temps today!