Good afternoon folks! We're wrapping up the weekend on a dry and warm note, but we'll start off the work week with showers moving into the area. A few flakes will fall across the higher elevations above 4500' to start the event, but all precip will fall as rain past midday. Heavy and widespread showers move through the area Monday night and showers wind down through the morning hours on Tuesday, with temps peaking for the week Tuesday afternoon. An upper level trough swings a second front through the region Wednesday and snow will fall on the back-end late Wednesday night into Thursday morning; mainly a high elevation event along the TN line. Cold weather sets up shop Thursday and holds strong through the weekend, with a few chances for snow showers starting Friday. These chances are tied to passing shortwaves and with the possible event 5 - 6 days out, we cannot nail down the time or say for certain where exactly these shortwaves will move and with this in mind we'll stop this forecast discussion at Thursday and circle back with more details early Tuesday morning.
Isolated showers will move into the region an hour before or after sunrise on Monday, with coverage slowly expanding throughout the day, becoming scattered by the mid afternoon hours. Temps will warm to the upper 30's - upper 40's depending upon elevation, making for a cold and dreary day, especially after the early morning snow along the ridgelines becomes all rain. Temps won't move much Monday night as the front swings through the region, holding to the low - mid 40's while heavy rain peppers the region. An inch of rain is likely Monday morning into the pre dawn hours on Tuesday.
Showers take most of the morning to wind down and another quarter - half inch of rain is likely, with event totals possibly nearing 2" along the escarpment while 1 - 1.5" is expected across the rest of SW NC. Temps Tuesday will soar to the upper 40's - low 60's depending upon elevation, making it the warmest day of the week. Clouds linger Tuesday night, but it should be a dry night with temps dipping into the mid 30's - low 40's.
Wednesday brings us a second frontal passage, however this one will be tied to some cold air and a classic cold chasing moisture setup will play out across WNC. Temps will warm to the mid 40's - mid 50's early in the day and begin to drop in earnest as we near sunset, with overnight lows eventually bottoming out to the upper teens - mid 20's. We expect rain to kick over to snow around sunset above 5000' and works its way down to the valley floor by midnight, but accumulations should hold to the ridgelines with 1 - 3" for the typical NW flow locations.
Thursday will be a stark contrast to the start of the week with temps only reaching the mid 20's - upper 30's depending upon elevation, with sunny skies being a small silver lining. Beyond Thursday the models show us a few chances for snow, but the details vary wildly and the timing will always change this far out, so we are going with a mention at this time for snow late in the week, promising more details early Tuesday morning.