Good afternoon folks! Sunny skies sit overhead this afternoon but the pattern will soon change as moisture pushes into the region from the southwest, beginning sometime this evening. Enough moisture will make its way into the region tonight for isolated showers to develop, becoming scattered by Tuesday morning. A cold front will cross the region Tuesday during the late evening hours and increase shower coverage to widespread, with showers continuing into the morning hours on Wednesday. It looks like rainfall totals will remain under an inch for SW NC and although the escarpment area comes close, this will be a light rain event. Colder air rushes in Wednesday afternoon, allowing rain to kick over to snow but available moisture is waning as this occurs so any snow that does fall will be minimal and not widespread. The models continue to go back and forth for the possibility of snow on Thursday, so for now we will go with a high elevation event with isolated coverage as the bulk of the moisture remains to our south. We will circle back on Wednesday with much more detail as we'll be in the short term model range. Looking ahead we are certain that dry weather follows Thursday with sunshine overhead Friday and Saturday, however temps will be below normal.
Tuesday and Wednesday will our wettest days of the week, with rainfall coverage peaking late Tuesday night into the early morning hours on Wednesday. Scattered light showers will dot the landscape by the early morning hours on Tuesday, slowly increasing to widespread by sunset. Temps Tuesday will warm to the upper 40's - low 60's, drop into the low - mid 40's overnight and only make it to the low 40's - low 50's Wednesday as colder air gradually works its way into the Carolinas. Sometime during the afternoon hours and possibly as early as midday, rain will kick over to snow for the higher elevations and slowly work its way down to the valley floor by the evening hours. We don't expect much in the way of accumulations, perhaps a dusting up to an inch for the ridgelines and token flakes for the valleys. Temps Wednesday night will bottom out to the upper 20's - mid 30's depending upon elevation, with most precip ending before midnight.
And then there is Thursday. Some of the models keep us bone dry, others bring us a health dose of snow, nothing too concerning but enough to be disruptive. For now we are going with light snow above 3500', with coverage better the closer you get to GA and SC, whereas the Balsams may struggle to squeeze out a few flakes. The short term models will be in play when we circle back on Wednesday and by then we should be much more confident with the forecast. Either way it looks like colder air is here to stay with temps in the 30's and 40's Thursday through the weekend.