Good morning folks! This past week has seen quite a lot of action with 4 - 8" of rain falling across the region Tuesday into Friday, followed by two rounds of snow, one Friday morning and a much more widespread event Saturday morning, which brought most of us 1 - 4" of snow. We will certainly enjoy the short lived reprieve we have today, however more rain returns Monday morning and becomes heavy late Monday into Tuesday morning. Shower coverage will remain scattered - widespread late Tuesday into Thursday, although the heaviest rain should fall sometime overnight into Tuesday; flooding is once again a concern. It seems sunshine returns Friday and the only silver lining to all of this rain is that temps will push into the low 60's for the valleys, cooling back to normal levels by Friday as high pressure takes control. We'll pick up anywhere from 2 - 4" of rain Monday into Tuesday, with another 1 - 3" Wednesday into Thursday evening.
Since today is a quiet day with sunshine overhead (after this stubborn fog lifts) and temps a touch above normal, we'll begin the discussion timeline on Monday and stop on Friday. Showers will begin to develop as early as sunrise Monday, but it should take most of the morning hours for showers to fill in across the region; first along the escarpment and N GA line, moving NE. Southwesterly flow, coupled with a second round of above normal moisture pouring into the region from the Gulf of Mexico will setup heavy rain overnight into Tuesday. Temps Monday will push into the upper 40's - mid 50's depending upon elevation and don't be surprised to see a few wet snow flakes along the SC state line into the Southern Highlands Plateau early Monday morning as we start the day in the low - mid 30's; nothing to worry about, all precip will be liquid by the mid morning hours. A front crosses the mountains before midday but stalls shortly thereafter across the Piedmont and past midday is when we will notice coverage expanding to widespread and at the same time intensities going from light to heavy as we approach sunset. Heavy rains stream across the region overnight, with temps settling into the upper 40's for most of the region; 1 - 2" is likely before sunrise.
Another inch or two of rain will pour across the region Tuesday morning and it's during this window of time that flooding is likely to occur; mainly localized streams and creeks and the usual low lying areas. Shower coverage winds down to scattered coverage after midday and due to the front not budging much, we'll deal with scattered light - moderate showers the remainder of the day, overnight into Wednesday and most of the day Wednesday. Temps will warm to the upper 40's - low 60's across the region both days, with overnight lows dipping into the low - mid 40's Tuesday night and upper 40's - low 50's Wednesday night.
The front mentioned above kicks out Wednesday but a second front will cross the region late Thursday as a surface low rides to our west across the TN valley. We'll pick up another inch or two of rain from this round and temps once again push into the upper 40's - upper 50's depending upon elevation.
Sunshine returns Friday as high pressure moves into the area, capping temps to the mid 30's - upper 40's depending upon elevation, which is a degree or two below normal. Saturday also looks sunny, but we'll stop here and circle back Tuesday morning with a new discussion, just as the heavy rain event is beginning to wind down.