Good afternoon folks! Close to a half inch of freezing rain occurred above 5500' Friday morning and snow even fell later that afternoon, continuing into the morning hours on Saturday, with 1 - 2 inches of snow being reported out of Maggie Valley above 4500'; an extremely isolated event. For those interested in the recent rain event, totals ranged from 1 - 3" as expected, with the highest amounts along the SC state line and Lake Toxaway took home the prize for highest total at 3.11".
Chilly temps and dry weather make up the rest of the afternoon, however the forecast has changed for Sunday with a high elevation snow event developing closer to sunset and continuing overnight into Monday. Light rain showers will fall for the lower elevations and this event carries over into Monday morning, followed by sunshine Tuesday. The models are not in sync for late Wednesday and beyond but we can discuss the general setup, which features a small chance for passing rain and snow showers that night, followed by a possibly heavy precip event Friday into next weekend.
Sunday wraps up the weekend with sunshine to start the day and temps will be right around normal, pushing to the mid 30's along the ridgelines and mid - upper 40's across the valleys. Clouds take over by the mid afternoon hours, if not sooner for the TN line and light - moderate snow will fall across the TN line overnight into Monday. Other high elevations ridgelines nearby (4000 - 5000' +) will also experience snow, while the valleys deal with another round of cold rain that could kick over to a wintry mix around sunrise. Precip will wind down first for the interior portion of SW NC sometime early Monday morning, as well as the Southern Highlands Plateau, while the TN line holds onto snowfall till the early afternoon hours; 2 - 3" of snow is possible. Temps Sunday night bottom out to the mid 20's - low 30's depending upon elevation and only rebound to the low 30's - mid 40's Monday afternoon. Another item to mention is NW winds will pick up Sunday afternoon and become steady around 15 - 20mph above 4500', not letting up till Monday afternoon. Even though precip ends Monday, clouds will linger for a while as NW flow takes most of the day to wind down. This will keep passing clouds overhead Monday night, clearing out just before sunrise on Tuesday and temps will dip into the low - upper 20's.
Tuesday and Wednesday should be dry, with full sunshine Tuesday and partial sunshine Wednesday. Temps will warm to the mid 30's - upper 40's both days. Tuesday night lows will settle into the mid 20's - low 30's and only dip to the upper 20's - mid 30's Wednesday night. The models show a possible wintry mix event swinging through Wednesday night, however this is not set in stone and could likely drop out of the picture. We should know more by Monday.
Since confidence in the model solutions is low beyond Wednesday, we will only mention that Thursday is likely to be dry and Friday into next weekend could experience a heavy precip event. We will know more by Monday and our next discussion will come sometime before noon that day.