Good morning folks! I had a family emergency yesterday and could not find the time to post a discussion, but I am back and ready to discuss the weather from Sunday into Thursday. Not much action during this timeframe as sunshine dominates the landscape, with the only headline being the cold snap. Temps eventually warm as the week progresses, pushing to a few degrees above normal by Wednesday. We are keeping an eye at the end of the work and school week for another round of rain and the details are still fuzzy, particularly the timing of the event as some models bring precip into our region Friday, others Saturday. All in all, a quiet start to the week with fair conditions continuing through Thursday, followed by a rain event sometime Friday or Saturday.
Sunday will be a cold day across the region as temps struggle to rise past the upper 20's - low 30's along the ridgelines and low 40's across the valleys. Factor in strong NW winds around 20 - 30mph above 4500' and wind chill values push into the teens, with a much lighter wind speed across the valleys; either way, it'll be a cold day. Temps bottom out to the low - upper teens depending upon elevation and the wind will continue to howl at 20 - 30mph across the higher elevations, resulting in near zero wind chill values; all under clear skies.
Martin Luther King Jr. Day will be the coldest day during the 3 day cold snap, with highs in the mid 20's along the ridgelines and mid 30's throughout the lower elevations. NW winds hold to a 10 - 20mph wind speed throughout the day, gusting to 35mph above 4500', forcing wind chill values to below zero, but it is the middle of January so this is not too extreme for a mid winter day. Temps bottom out to the low - upper teens once again, with a few passing clouds after midnight.
Tuesday brings us more of a technical warm-up as temps reach the upper 20's - upper 30's across the region, but with NW winds continuing to hold firm around 10 - 20mph, it will feel like we hit the repeat button. Winds should calm down overnight and allow temps to settle into the upper teens for the valleys, while the ridgelines bottom out to the upper teens; clear skies overhead.
Wednesday and Thursday bring us a noticeable warm up, with temps pushing into the upper 30's - low 50's depending upon elevation, which is roughly 3 - 4 degrees above average for mid - late January. As the upper level pattern begins to shift in advance of the incoming rain event Friday or Saturday, we'll notice cloud cover developing on Thursday.
We wont get into any details for the late week precip event, but only to say it will happen with no grasp as to whether it will occur on Friday or Saturday. Our next discussion will come out on Tuesday, more than likely around 2 - 4pm. Stay warm out there!