Good morning folks! We wrap up the weekend under high passing clouds, however several valley locations will endure low level clouds and fog well into the late morning hours. We don't expect showers to break out across the region till closer to midnight and even then coverage will be isolated and rainfall intensities light. Spotty showers will dot the landscape Monday and we won't experience widespread rainfall till Tuesday morning, as we await the arrival of a cold front. This front will usher in colder temps for Wednesday and if enough moisture lingers on the back end, the higher elevations above 4500' could experience a wintry mix; minor accumulations at best. Sunshine takes over Wednesday and carries over into Thursday with temps a handful of degrees colder than normal. Everyone continues to watch the late week rain/snow event on the modeling and as of now the trend is not in favor of wintry precip, with rainfall expected on Friday and Saturday. This being said, we and other weather outlets are not confident with this forecast due to model discrepancy and we highly recommend checking in over the next couple of days to make sure your work or travel plans are not impacted.
Temps Monday and Tuesday will make a run at the 60°F mark for the lower elevations, while the higher elevations above 4000' experience afternoon highs in the upper 40's - low 50's. Scattered light showers make up most of the action on Monday, with the bulk of the activity occurring closer to sunset as southwesterly flow takes some time to ramp up across the Carolinas. Due to the overall flow being out of the southwest, the N GA and SC state line will pick up the most rainfall during the first phase of this rain event, however the TN line and locations nearby will be the winners during the second phase. This second round will push through Tuesday morning, with peak coverage around 9a - 1pm for SW NC, although rainfall continues throughout the rest of the day, eventually winding down during the late evening hours. The first round will bring us a quarter of an inch, while the second round drops an inch or more across the region. Temps Monday night will dip into the upper 40's - low 50's, however they plummet to the upper 20's - mid 30's Tuesday night as colder air rushes in behind the departing front. This drop in temps, coupled with lingering moisture will allow rain to kick over to snow or a wintry mix above 4500' Tuesday night, with minimal accumulations (at this point in time we do not expect any major issues).
Clouds clear and sunshine takes over Wednesday morning, but it'll be chilly as temps only make it to the low - mid 30's above 4500', while the valleys struggle to reach the upper 40's. Add in westerly winds around 10 - 20mph and wind chill values dip to the mid 20's - low 40's respectively.
Sunshine carries over into Thursday and temps warm a few degrees compared to Wednesday. Things begin to change early Friday morning as clouds fill in and showers slowly break out across the region. The models are vastly different in their solutions, however a handful have shown a trend away from wintry precip and instead pushed for two rounds of rain Friday and Saturday. We'll stop here because confidence is low but we should have a much better handle on the event when our next discussion comes out Tuesday afternoon.