Good afternoon folks and Happy Thanksgiving! The weather is gorgeous today but things will soon change as we head into the weekend. We'll enjoy one more day of sunshine Friday and then showers push into the region Saturday afternoon, peaking overnight into Sunday. The front that provides us with rain late Saturday will push east Sunday, but a fairly strong NW flow event will begin Sunday afternoon, setting up a NW flow snow event Sunday night into the day on Monday. For now we only expect accumulating snow above 4000' for locations closer to the TN line, however the valleys should experience passing snow showers. Temps will dip to well below normal levels Monday and warm slightly on Tuesday, but we'll maintain a chilly setup into the middle of next week.
Friday keeps mostly sunny skies overhead and temps will be able to push into the upper 40's - low 60's depending upon elevation, with high clouds moving in shortly before or after sunset. Clouds thicken overnight into Saturday and temps hold to the low - mid 40's, with an isolated shower possible along the TN line just before sunrise.
Saturday will not be a complete waste of a day and if you have outdoor chores to complete, we recommend getting up early and knocking them out before midday. Shower coverage picks up to scattered by midday and then widespread by the evening hours, with temps once again climbing to the upper 40's - low 60's depending upon elevation. An inch of rain is possible across all of SW NC and since the front is out of the west - southwest, ridgelines facing southwest will make a run at the 1.5 - 2" mark. Overnight lows into Sunday will dip into the mid 40's across all of SW NC, making for a gray and chilly night.
Showers wind down before the mid morning hours Sunday, however high clouds stick around as we transition from the frontal passage into NW flow. An upper level low in the Great Lakes region will setup a decent connection to our region, providing us with enough moisture to kick off light - moderate snow showers overnight into Monday. Temps Sunday push into the mid 40's - upper 50's and fall to the mid 20's along the ridgelines overnight, while the valleys hold to the low - mid 30's. As of now, we expect snow to accumulate overnight into Monday for the favored NW flow locations (TN line, Great Balsams, ridgelines above 4000' closer to the TN line) and the models show snowfall continuing into the early afternoon hours. We are not confident enough to discuss snowfall amounts, but be prepared for a cold start to the work and school week, with wintry precip falling across the region.
We'll circle back Saturday morning with more details and better breakdown of the upcoming snow event and cool down next week. Enjoy the holiday!