Good afternoon folks! Rain is falling overhead as we post this discussion Saturday afternoon and rainfall totals are on track to meet forecasted amounts of 1 - 2" across the region, with a few sites coming to close to 2.5 - 3" when it's all said and done. Showers clear out this evening and as the low pressure system slides NE, a NW flow event will develop tonight, allowing snow to fall along the TN line and nearby ridgelines. Sunshine then takes over Sunday and sticks around into Tuesday, followed by a frontal passage late Tuesday into Wednesday that will bring us another round of widespread showers. Thanksgiving Day will feature a few light showers and passing clouds, but this is not a lock as the models diverge in their forecast past the middle of the week. We don't expect dry weather but there could be an uptick in showers, more than currently forecasted and we'll wait till Monday to post more details to give the models more time to come to an agreement.
Sunday will be sunny but temps will be a touch cooler than Saturday, only reaching the upper 30's - low 50's depending upon elevation. Light snow that fell overnight will amount to a dusting or perhaps as much as an inch for the favored NW flow locations and flurries are possible into the mid morning hours for the Smokies. NW winds around 10 - 15mph will keep a slight chill to the air and with clear skies overhead Sunday night, temps will dip into the upper 20's - mid 30's, although it will be the valleys who are colder than the ridgelines come Monday morning (due to radiational cooling).
Monday and Tuesday keep sunny skies overhead, with temps rising to the upper 40's - low 60's each afternoon, which is a handful of degrees above normal but nothing too drastic for late November. Overnight lows settle into the low - upper 30's Monday night under clear skies but hold to the low - mid 40's Tuesday night as clouds move in, followed by showers closer to sunrise on Wednesday.
For now it seems a band of widespread showers will traverse the region Wednesday, exiting later that night but the models keep moisture riding over the region into Thursday, hence why there is a chance for light showers on Thanksgiving Day. We'll stop here and let the models work out the kinks, but keep in mind that a dry and sunny Thanksgiving might not be possible this year. Enjoy the sunny end to the weekend!