Upper 20's Possible Thursday Morning

October 22, 2019

Good afternoon folks! The rain is behind us and winds are steady out of the NW around 10 - 20mph as we type this discussion (Tuesday afternoon). We picked up anywhere from a quarter of an inch to an inch across most of the region, with the highest amount out of Lake Toxaway (shocker) at 1.22". We'll enjoy two days of sunshine Wednesday and Thursday, followed by increasing clouds Friday and eventually showers will move into the region this weekend. The models still don't have a good handle as to when scattered or widespread showers will develop, so for now we are going with scattered showers late Saturday, most of the day Sunday and possibly extending into early next week. An upper level trough will move in this weekend, fueling our rain chances Saturday and Sunday, possibly extending into Monday and Tuesday of next week. 

 

Temps Wednesday will only make it to the upper 40's - low 60's depending upon elevation, even with sunny skies overhead as NW winds continue to usher in cooler than normal temps. Eventually the winds will calm down, first for the valleys just before sunset and sometime after midnight for the ridgelines. With clear skies overhead, little to no wind, and low dewpoints the valleys will make a run at the upper 20's with widespread frost, while the ridgelines experience a temperature inversion with overnight lows in the upper 30's; patchy frost likely. 

 

Thursday keeps sunny skies overhead and temps warm slightly to the low 50's - mid 60's, settling into the upper 30's - mid 40's overnight into Friday due to moisture levels increasing ahead of our next rainmaker; partly cloudy skies after midnight. 

 

Friday will start the day with more sunshine than cloud cover but mostly cloudy skies are expected to finish the day and as of this afternoon, we expect showers to hold off till Saturday, setting up a quiet night for local high school football. Temps Friday reach the mid 50's - low 60's and there won't be much movement overnight due to cloudy skies as overnight lows settle into the upper 40's - low 50's. 

 

Isolated showers are possible before noon on Saturday, with coverage increasing to scattered and holding there through Sunday afternoon. It's not the end of the world, but we expected the models to have a better handle on the upcoming weekend rain event by now, however they continue to struggle with the timing of the incoming upper level trough. We'll post another discussion Thursday afternoon with more details regarding timing and forecasted rain amounts, but go ahead and plan around spotty showers and temps in the mid 50's - low 60's both Saturday and Sunday. 

 

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