Good morning folks! Over the past 24 hours a quarter up to an inch of rain fell across a good portion of the region, however not all of us picked up rain. The highest amounts were located along the escarpment or nearby, while the driest spots were located along the TN line, all of this due to the easterly flow setup the past few days. This weak cold air damming setup will break down today (Wednesday) and we'll see a gradual transition to sunny skies by Thursday, with sunshine spilling over into Friday. A front is expected to cross the region Saturday, producing some showers and the models hint at it stalling just to our southeast, which may be prove to be helpful early next week. Sometime around Monday or Tuesday of next week a low pressure system may lift out of the Gulf of Mexico and move in our direction, riding the stalled front and possibly leading to widespread showers. This is not set in stone but the overall setup seems ideal for region wide rainfall early next week. Temps all the while will be a handful of degrees above normal today through Friday, cooling back down to seasonal levels this weekend; Cullowhee's normal high is 71°F for October 9th, with a normal low of 45°F.
Low clouds will scour out as the day moves along, while high clouds pass overhead, eventually clearing out this evening. Temps today (Wednesday) climb to the upper 50's along the ridgelines, warming to the low 70's in the valleys with a very small chance for a light shower along the highest ridgelines. Overnight lows settle into the upper 40's - mid 50's depending upon elevation, under gradually clearing skies.
Thursday and Friday offer up mostly sunny skies and temps climbing to the the low 60's - mid 70's (depending upon elevation) each afternoon, with overnight lows settling into the upper 40's - upper 50's each night. Thursday night will be clear, while Friday night features increasing clouds as the front approaches from the west.
The front slated for Saturday will be weak and although we expect spotty showers past midday, we do not expect a washout, more of a cloudy, damp, fall kind of day. Temps hold to the upper 50's - low 70's all weekend, even with sunshine returning on Sunday.
We won't go into any details today regarding the possibility for rain Monday into Tuesday as we want the models fine tune the picture, but we will circle back on Friday with more details about the weekend and take a look into early next week.