Good morning folks! Although the Cats lost a close game, at least we were able to enjoy a pleasant fall weekend with the cooler weather and colors beginning to turn across the highest ridgelines. The color forecast this year points to a short lived season due to the extended late season heat wave and ongoing drought. With this in mind it looks like things will quickly peak late this week and the following week for the highest elevations, while the valleys transition during the middle of the month.
Back to the weather. We'll experience a few passing showers today (Sunday) but the meat of the rain event arrives late Monday as a front crosses the region, followed by another short round of showers Tuesday mid afternoon. The models do not like the setup as everything is stretched and fast moving, resulting in a half inch of rain at best for the region today through Tuesday. Sunshine returns Wednesday and should extend into Friday, with a possible frontal passage next weekend. Temps all the while remain near normal levels, which is the only silver lining as we continue to hope for more rain chances to combat the increasing drought.
Monday and Tuesday will feature mostly cloudy skies overhead as a cold front slides across the area late Monday, while an upper level trough develops nearby Tuesday afternoon (combined slightly with a developing wedge). Temps will reach the low 70's across the valleys Monday and struggle to climb past the 70°F mark Tuesday, with overnight lows settling into the mid - upper 50's each night. Scattered showers develop around midday Monday and peak in coverage just before sunset, continuing overnight into Tuesday but scaling back to isolated coverage just after midnight. We'll experience another peak in coverage early Tuesday afternoon as the upper level trough swings near the region, but this will be short lived as all shower coverage comes to an end Tuesday evening, followed by clearing skies Tuesday night.
Wednesday into Friday offers up mostly sunny skies with temps reaching the upper 50's along the ridgelines, while the valleys warm to the low - mid 70's.
We'll stop here and post another forecast discussion Tuesday afternoon, with a better look at the upcoming weekend as the models hint at a frontal passage Saturday.