Good afternoon folks! As of Wednesday afternoon we are once again roasting across the region with temps pushing anywhere from 14 - 18 degrees above normal for early October and this heat lingers into Thursday, cooling down slightly on Friday. The real and highly anticipated cooldown begins Saturday and normal temps (even slightly below normal at times) will play out the rest of the weekend and throughout next week. Although nothing is certain, this does look like our last gasp of heat for the season, with no more mid - upper 80's expected till next spring/summer. The high pressure overhead currently will shift east Friday as an upper level shortwave pushes across the Northeast, setting the stage for a backdoor cold front passage Friday night. We will wake up Saturday to passing high clouds and fall like conditions, with showers possible on Sunday. Shower chances increase for Monday and Tuesday but the models are struggling as to how much rain will occur, which of course impacts our temp forecast, but for now we are going with near normal temps.
Temps on Thursday soar once again to the upper 80's across the valleys, while the ridgelines warm to the low - mid 70's under mostly sunny skies. Clear skies Thursday night allow temps to settle into the mid 50's - low 60's depending upon elevation, with valley fog likely just before sunrise.
Friday is similar to Thursday in that mostly sunny skies remain overhead, however temps cool down a handful of degrees compared to Thursday, climbing to the upper 60's - low 80's depending upon elevation. A few clouds will build across the region Friday night and temps will dip into the low - upper 50's across the region, setting up an ideal Friday night football experience.
Saturday features high passing clouds as a short lived wedge sets up across the Carolinas and much like any other wedge there is a decent chance the cloud cover does not push all the way to the N GA line, but temps should cool to the low 60's along the ridgelines and mid 70's for the valleys. Sunday offers up slightly more cloud cover and a chance for a light shower or two, with temps once again in the low 60's - mid 70's, creating a delightful weekend if you are a fan of fall weather. Overnight lows both nights settle into the low - upper 50's depending upon elevation.
The models are trying to decide whether an upper level trough simply swings through the region Monday into Tuesday or develops a cutoff low. If the former happens, light spotty showers are possible but if the latter occurs, then we could experience a much needed soaking rain event. Either way temps hold to the low 60's - mid 70's but if a soaker occurs, temps could drop a degree or two both days.
Since we do not know for certain which way early next week will play out, we will wait till Sunday morning to discuss more details. As they say, an upper level low is the weatherman's woe. Enjoy the cooler temps!