Good afternoon folks! We are watching a slow and steady pattern change begin to unfold this afternoon (Thursday) as enough moisture creeps into the region to nix the full sunshine setup we have endured/enjoyed as of late. Friday will be more the noticeable day of change as a backdoor cold front moves into the region from the north, while a cold front tries to make headway into the area from the NW. It doesn't seem the cold front will make much headway as the backdoor front wins out, stalling across the region and becoming the mechanism for shower development this weekend. At the same time an area of low pressure is developing in the eastern Gulf of Mexico that is likely to move northward over the weekend and into early next week. This will set the stage for an increase in moisture levels to the point where daily showers are a good bet, beginning Saturday and continuing well into the latter part of next week. We don't expect a washout, just passing showers and there is a silver lining in that temps will return to normal levels; the long range models even hint at a minor cool-down by the end of the month!
Friday will be an enjoyable day for most with a mostly sunny start, followed by high clouds building in from the northeast as we near sunset. Isolated showers are likely along the escarpment and Great Balsams due to the incoming backdoor front. Temps will peak to the upper 60's along the ridgelines, while the valleys manage to reach the mid 80's, however it wont feel as hot as Thursday due to increasing cloud cover. Friday night brings with it mostly cloudy skies and isolated showers into the late evening hours, fizzling out before midnight; lows dip into the upper 50's - mid 60's depending upon elevation.
Saturday and Sunday will be muggy and showers are likely but keep those outdoor plans as shower coverage will be scattered and with a healthy steering flow out of the east, we don't expect showers to train or stall over one particular location. For those tailgating Saturday for the Western football game, we encourage tents, a towel or two and a rain jacket for the game (remember, no umbrellas inside the stadium). Rainfall chances peak during the mid afternoon hours on Saturday, with a traditional mix of pop up showers and periods of sunshine Sunday. We would love to be able to say it will rain here and there at this specific time, but its still a summer like setup out there and all we can manage at this time is window when rain chances are higher. Temps both days reach the mid 60's along the ridgelines, while the valleys enjoy temps in the upper 70's - low 80's; a fair trade off if you ask us.
Monday into Tuesday keep scattered shower chances going with more clouds than sun overhead, helping to keep temps to the mid 60's - low 80's depending upon elevation. We will circle back with a new discussion late Sunday and have a better handle on how the low pressure in the Gulf right now will impact (or not) our region.