Good afternoon folks! The tropical system moving into the Gulf of Mexico will migrate southwest and possibly make landfall around the LA/TX coastline, then take a more ENE path that looks to avoid our area through at least the middle of next week. With this in mind we look to avoid the heavy rainfall and very high moisture levels that are likely to surge into the deep and mid south regions. Looking at the more immediate forecast period, we expect a front to swing through Thursday afternoon, bringing with it widespread showers and heavy rain producers that may extend well into Friday. The weekend ahead looks fairly pleasant for mid July as sunshine pushes temps into the mid - upper 80's for the valleys, with isolated thunderstorms each afternoon; this setup should extend into Monday, possibly Tuesday.
Temps Wednesday will climb to the low - mid 80's for the valleys, while the ridgelines enjoy temps in the upper 60's, all due to a high pressure system to our north. Scattered thunderstorms are a good bet after the lunchtime hour, with slightly more coverage compared to Tuesday. Temps Wednesday night settle into the low - mid 60's under partly - mostly cloudy skies.
Thursday will feature increasing cloud cover as the day moves along and we expect showers and thunderstorms to push in from the west starting around 3 - 5pm, continuing well into the evening and overnight hours. The front will be slow to exit the region and eventually stall to our south and east, which inevitably will be the reason we miss the intrusion of heavy rain and high moisture levels from the tropical system. Temps climb to the mid 80's both Thursday and Friday across the lower elevations and scattered showers are likely Friday, with some clearing before sunset.
The weekend outlook looks tame enough for those who have outdoor plans as mostly sunny skies transition to partly cloudy skies, alongside isolated thunderstorms each afternoon. Temps hold to the mid 80's and may push to the upper 80's for an hour or two before cooling off as cloud cover builds later in the day.
We'll put out the next discussion Thursday morning and focus on the incoming rain, the weekend and also the potential impact the tropical system may bring to our region (not looking like much at this point in time).