A Fairly Normal Setup through Wednesday
Good morning folks! As we wind down the holiday weekend today, we'll notice a slight decline in moisture levels, more so the higher up you go in elevation and this will translate to slightly reduced shower coverage this afternoon. Monday keeps pop up shower chances alive, although there should be more sun than clouds overhead. By Tuesday we'll be dealing with a passing high pressure system that will bring temps a degree or two below normal for early July. This high pressure system will exit Wednesday and a front swings through late Thursday that will bring us scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms late in the day (timing not set in stone this far out). Next weekend is still up in the air but all eyes are on the upper level disturbance to our south that will "become something" as it wades across the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico this week, possibly turning north toward our region. This possible migration north is not set in stone but we are keeping an eye on it as it could bring us widespread heavy rain, but we'll wait till our next discussion on Tuesday to discuss any details.
A handful of showers and thunderstorms will pop up today (Sunday) and temps will make a run at the low 70's along the ridgelines to the mid 80's across the valleys. Shower coverage fizzles out after sunset and temps settle into the low - mid 60's region wide, under partly cloudy skies past midnight.
Monday is a slight repeat of Sunday, with sunshine to start the day and pop up showers developing closer to sunset. Temps will be a degree or two cooler but for the most part we still expect afternoon highs to hit the low 70's - mid 80's depending upon elevation.
Tuesday and Wednesday bring us temps in the upper 60's along the ridgelines and low 80's for the valleys, mainly due to a slight increase in cloud cover to where partly cloudy - partly sunny skies rule the day. Scattered thunderstorms are possible both days but compared to Sunday/Monday and Thursday/Friday, these two days should be our driest days of the week.
A front approaches the region from the west late in the day Thursday and although the timing is likely to change as we near the event, we still expect widespread showers before sunset that are likely to carry over into Friday morning. Past this point in time we'll stop as the models diverge and the main player in the room has still yet to decide where it wants to go after forming a possible tropical system in the Gulf (could be named Barry).
Our next discussion will come out Tuesday afternoon and we'll focus on the upcoming rain Thursday afternoon, as well as the potential for heavy rain next weekend.