Good afternoon folks! The slightly above average temps will continue as early July should be in the mid - upper 80's for the valleys, however we'll deal with temps in the upper 80's to near 90°F through Wednesday. Things cool down starting Thursday and become noticeable by Friday as moisture surges northeast from the Gulf of Mexico, allowing for more clouds and showers/thunderstorms to develop, which will keep temps to the low - mid 80's across the lower elevations. For now, Independence Day (Thursday) still looks ok to head outdoors and even the late evening hours look ok for fireworks, however pop up thunderstorms are possible so keep an eye to the sky or radar as you enjoy your time outside. The models hint at an organized line of storms Sunday into Monday, but for now we will only mention the possibility and wait till Thursday afternoon to dive into details.
Temps will push into the upper 80's both Tuesday and Wednesday, with sunshine to start the day and partly cloudy skies to end the day as isolated thunderstorms develop closer to sunset. Muggy conditions will continue and this will push heat indices into the low 90's, so be sure to keep hydrated as you enjoy time outside. Along the ridgelines is where you can escape the heat with highs in the low 70's, however this is also where you'll find the best chance for shower activity as we rely upon differential heating and terrain influences to develop thunderstorms each afternoon. Temps overnight continue to the settle into the low - mid 60's each night under partly cloudy skies.
Thursday, July 4th, will be similar to Wednesday with a sunny start but we do expect slightly more cloud cover past 3pm as scattered thunderstorms develop. Temps hit the mid - upper 80's along the valley floor and shower coverage should wane as the sun sets, allowing local fireworks to go off without a hitch. For the photographers out there hoping to grab those gorgeous valley firework displays from a high vantage point, be aware that partly cloudy skies will play out all evening long and moisture levels will remain high (lingering smoke but also a lasting color effect). Overnight lows settle into the mid - upper 60's Thursday night with shower coverage dropping to isolated by the late evening hours.
Friday and Saturday look rather wet at this time and we'll circle back Thursday with another discussion to ensure the forecast hasn't changed much. As of now the upper level pattern will setup in a manner that brings copious amounts of moisture into the region from the Gulf of Mexico, alongside upper level winds winding down a bit that will translate into slow moving thunderstorms, some stationary. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms develop each afternoon and temps will respond, only hitting the low 80's across the lower elevations. For now, the forecasted totals will be around 0.75 - 1.5", higher under stationary thunderstorms. Don't cancel outdoor plans just yet, but we do advise scraping together backup plans that don't involve being outside all day.
As we mentioned, our next discussion comes out Thursday and we'll focus on the rain coming into the area Friday and Saturday, as well as early next week.