Good afternoon folks! The band of showers and thunderstorms that crossed the region early afternoon Sunday dropped a quarter of an inch for most of the region, with a handful of half inch reports and the highest total is out of Otto at 0.94". We'll enjoy a slight reprieve from the rain Sunday night through Monday morning, followed by another round of scattered thunderstorms late Monday afternoon. This next round of rain is due to a frontal passage Monday evening, which will usher in drier air for Tuesday, translating to mostly sunny skies with a slight chance for a pop up shower closer to sunset. The upper level ridge weakens Wednesday into Friday, allowing for typical summer time pop up thunderstorms each afternoon and the models hint at a frontal passage on Saturday, but we are not putting anything down on that bet right now. Temps all the while will remain at or slightly below average for this time of the year; low - mid 80's for the valleys, mid - upper 60's along the ridgelines.
Starting on Monday the forecast only has a few highlights and one of those is the frontal passage Monday evening, with scattered thunderstorms developing and pushing through during the mid - late afternoon hours. Showers will continue through the evening hours but wane as we approach midnight, due to dry air filtering in from the NW, setting up a sunny start to the day on Tuesday. Temps Monday and Tuesday reach the mid 80's across the lower elevations, while the ridgelines sit in the mid - upper 60's; overnight lows in the upper 50's - mid 60's. Monday will be much more uncomfortable compared to Tuesday as muggy conditions peak after midday, not becoming comfortable by summer standards till the late morning hours on Tuesday.
By Wednesday the upper level ridge will begin to show signs of weakening and the models bring an upper level disturbance nearby the region, allowing high cirrus clouds to develop, alongside scattered showers closer to sunset. Thursday and Friday will likely feature more sun than clouds, but as we near the 3 - 6pm time frame, strong thunderstorms are possible. Temps continue to push into the mid - upper 60's along the ridgelines, cooling off slightly to the low - mid 80's throughout the lower elevations.
All in all the week ahead looks typical for late June and we don't expect anything to put a damper on your outdoor plans. Our next discussion will come out Tuesday afternoon.