On and Off Again Thunderstorms
Good afternoon folks! Tuesday proved to be a very wet day across the region, blowing our forecasted rainfall amounts out of the water as some locations surpassed the 3" mark, while most of the region picked up an inch or more. Wednesday is winding down with little fanfare but Thursday should be active as we expect a morning round of moderate - heavy rain, followed by a second round closer to sunset as a cold front pushes through the region. This front will move east and stall but far enough away to allow dry weather to move in Friday, setting up a nice yet hot end to the work week. The NW flow setup brings us more thunderstorms Saturday, with two possible rounds (much like Thursday) and Sunday is a slight repeat with thunderstorms expected closer to sunset. Moisture levels will remain quite high (except for Friday) into early next week and with temps pushing into the mid 80's, be prepared for a muggy next few days.
Thursday morning will feature a decaying MCS moving across the mountains and because of the timing and lack of upper level support, we don't expect any severe thunderstorms, just heavy rain producing storms. The front will reach the mountains late in the day and by then enough instability should be present to fire up some strong to severe storms, so keep an eye to the radar if you are traveling or have outdoor plans. Temps Thursday only reach the mid 60's along the ridgelines, while the valleys climb to the upper 70's, with mostly cloudy skies overhead the majority of the day. Temps Thursday night settle into the mid 50's - low 60's and scattered thunderstorms that linger past sunset will fizzle out closer to midnight, allowing clouds to clear out by sunrise.
Friday will be sunny but hot as temps push to the low 70's - mid 80's, perhaps even to the upper 80's in the more populated downtown areas. Lows Friday night settle back into the upper 50's - mid 60's under partly cloudy skies as moisture quickly returns to the region.
Saturday offers up several possible rounds of showers and storms but for now the likely scenario is for a round of showers around the mid morning hours and a second round closer to sunset. There will be a mixed bag of clouds and sun overhead, although there should be more clouds than sun before 10am as the first piece of upper level energy swings through the area. Sunday plays out much the same way, however this go around we expect more sunshine during the day that will only serve to strengthen any storms that develop closer to sunset. Temps both days hit the low 70's along the ridgelines and flirt with the upper 80's in the valleys.
Our next discussion will come out Friday morning and we'll focus on the weekend and early part of next week, which surprise, doesn't look to change all that much.