Good afternoon folks! I was fortunate enough to spend some time on the ridgelines this past weekend, particularly around Black Balsam Knob and the overnight temps were refreshing as temps dipped into the 40's. Even Mt Mitchell this morning dipped down to 47°F this morning, so if you are in need of some spring like weather, head on up to elevations above 5900' and enjoy the cooler temps while they last. Looking ahead, temps remain near normal through the rest of the week but the humidity levels will skyrocket beginning Wednesday, remaining muggy through at least early next week. Sunshine remains overhead Tuesday, however widespread showers sweep the region Wednesday and scattered pop up showers take over for Thursday and Friday, followed by a wet weekend with upwards of 2 - 3" of rain from Wednesday into Sunday. This of course is not the forecast you want to read if you have outdoor plans, but after such a stretch of dry and hot weather we'll deal with the inconvenience.
Temps Tuesday will climb to the mid 60's along the ridgelines to the mid 80's across the valleys, with some high clouds developing closer to sunset. Northerly flow will transition to southerly flow by the morning hours on Wednesday and widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected closer to the noon hour. A half inch up to an inch is possible Wednesday and although cloudy skies sit overhead and showers will be sweeping the region, temps make a push to the mid 60's - low 80's depending upon elevation. Overnight lows dip into the upper 50's - low 60's each night, with partly cloudy skies Tuesday night and mostly cloudy skies overhead Wednesday night, alongside scattered showers that will fizzle out as the night moves along.
The front that passes through Wednesday will stall across the region Thursday and Friday, allowing even more moisture from the Gulf and Atlantic to slowly push into the area, peaking this weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mixed with short lived periods of sunshine, will make up most of the action and another 0.5 - 0.75" of rain is likely over the 48 hour period. Temps cool down a degree or two, pushing into the low 60's across the ridgelines and making a run at 80°F for the lowest elevations; overnight lows settle into the low - mid 60's for the entire area.
We are still 4 - 5 days out from this weekend and things could change but the models continue to point to a disturbance moving out of the Gulf, heading north and place the track of excess moisture across SW NC. We expect 1 - 2" of rain to fall across the entire region Saturday through Sunday and the usual suspects along the SC state line could hit the 3" mark. With the dry antecedent conditions and long, drawn out rain event, we don't expect much in the way of flooding or severe weather. Temps this weekend should respond to the constant rain and thick cloud cover, only pushing into the upper 50's - upper 70's depending upon elevation.
We'll put out another forecast discussion Wednesday and focus on the current and upcoming rainfall, with a peak into early next week. Enjoy the sunshine Tuesday before clouds and rain setup shop Wednesday, possibly not leaving till the middle of next week!